Оценка влияния климатической политики на сельское хозяйство субъектов РФ при различных климатических сценариях
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-4-15Ключевые слова:
глобальное потепление, эмиссия парниковых газов, рынки сельскохозяйственной продукции, экономико-математическое моделирование, сценарный анализАннотация
Существующие модельные оценки влияния климатической политики на сельское хозяйство, как правило, не учитывают, что её предстоит проводить при ином климате. Немногие работы, свободные от этого упрощения, не анализируют субнациональный уровень. Для восполнения этого пробела на примере Алтайского, Краснодарского, Красноярского краёв и Московской области с помощью сценарного подхода проверяется гипотеза о несущественности влияния климата на последствия климатической политики. Действие климата отражено географическим положением природно-сельскохозяйственных зон, уровнями продуктивности, неопределённостью результатов производства, а также ростом мировых цен на продукцию; политики — гарантированным снижением эмиссии парниковых газов. Состояние сельского хозяйства при каждом сценарии оценено пространственной моделью частичного равновесия на рынках 9 видов сельхозпродукции в разрезе субъектов РФ (модель ВИАПИ). Модель основана на данных Росстата и Минсельхоза России по всем субъектам РФ за период 2015–2019 гг. Гипотеза проверена для ряда показателей каждого из четырёх субъектов и России в целом; в большинстве случаев она отклонена. Значит, абстрагирование от изменений климата формирует неверную картину последствий климатической политики. Ограничение эмиссии парниковых газов в сельском хозяйстве ухудшает положение производителей и потребителей сельхозпродукции. Изменение климата, если оно не сопряжено с ростом мировых цен, смягчает этот эффект. Полученные оценки полезны инвесторам, поскольку они раскрывают преимущества и риски сельского хозяйства изученных регионов; а также региональным органам управления, т. к. помогают им предотвращать вероятные потери. Дан импульс прикладным исследованиям, раскрывающим причинно-следственные связи реакции региональных рынков на сочетание факторов климата и политики.
Библиографические ссылки
Anthoff, D., & Tol, R. S. J. (2013). The Uncertainty about the Social Cost of Carbon: A Decomposition Analysis Using Fund. Climatic Change, 117 (3), 515-530. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0706-7
Auerswald, H., Konrad, K. A., & Thum, M. (2018). Adaptation, mitigation and risk-taking in climate policy. Journal of Economics, 124, 269-287. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00712-017-0579-8
Babkina, A. V., & Puchkova, O. S. (2022). The role of the mechanism of government support in the transition to an innovative development model of the agro-industrial complex of the Far East. Izvestiya Mezhdunarodnoy akademii agrarnogo obrazovaniya [Proceedings of the International academy of agrarian education] (59), 81-84. (In Russ.)
Bashmakov, I. (2009). Low-carbon Russia: Prospects after the crisis. Voprosy ekonomiki, (10), 107-120. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042–8736-2009-10-107-120 (In Russ.)
Belyaeva, M., & Bokusheva, R. (2018). Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach. Climatic Change, 149, 205-217. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2221-3
Bosello, F., Carraro, C., & De Cian, E. (2012). Climate change, adaptation. Copenhagen Consensus Center. http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep16370 (дата обращения: 27.11.2023).
Bosello, F., De Cian, E., & Ferranna, L. (2014). Catastrophic Risk, Precautionary Abatement, and Adaptation Transfers. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM). http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep01116 (дата обращения: 27.11.2023).
Burton, I., Huq, S., Lim, B., Pilifosova, O., & Schipper, E. L. (2002). From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of adaptation policy. Climate Policy, 2 (2-3), 145-159. https://doi.org/10.3763/cpol.2002.0217
Danilov-Danil’yan, V. I., & Pryazhinskaya, V. G. (2007). Scenarios of sustainable regional water consumption under climate change. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 18, 153-161. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700707020050
Digas, B. V., & Rozenberg, V. L. (2013). Comprehensive estimation model of MERGE: adaptation to current state of world economy. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of region], (3), 281-290. https://doi.org/10.17059/2013-3-26 (In Russ.)
Dobes, L., Jotzo, F., & Stern, D. (2014). The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review. Review of Economics, 65 (3), 281-320. https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2014–0305
Ermolieva, T., Havlík, P., Ermoliev, Y., Mosnier, A., Obersteiner, M., Leclère, D., Khabarov, N., Valin, H., & Reuter, W. (2016). Integrated management of land use systems under systemic risks and security targets: A stochastic global biosphere management model. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 67 (3), 584–601. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477–9552.12173
Fellmann, T., Witzke, P., Weiss, F., Van Doorslaer, B., Drabik, D., Huck, I., Salputra, G., Jansson, T., & Leip, A. (2018). Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 23, 451-468. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9743-2
Forrester, J. (1973). World dynamics. Wright-Allen Press.
Gillingham, K., Nordhaus, W., Anthoff, D., Blanford, G., Bosetti, V., Christensen, P., McJeon, H., & Reilly, J. (2018). Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 5 (4), 791-826. https://doi.org/10.1086/698910
Gilmundinov, V. M., Pankova, Yu. V., & Tagaeva, T. O. (2023). The Concept of Regional Differentiation of the Processes of Decarbonization of the Russian Economy. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 34, 786-793. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723060059
Goodess, C. M., Hanson, C., Hulme, M., & Osborn, T. J. (2003). Representing Climate and Extreme Weather Events in Integrated Assessment Models: A Review of Existing Methods and Options for Development. Integrated Assessment, 4 (3), 145-171. https://doi.org/10.1076/iaij.4.3.145.23772
Gorbacheva, N. V. (2023). Comparative analysis of decarbonising economy in Siberia and Scandinavia megaregions: Price, value and values of energy. Voprosy ekonomiki, (10), 124-148. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042–8736-2023-10-124-148 (In Russ.)
Gracheva, M. V., Tumanova, E. A., Chaya, V. T., Afanas’ev, M. Yu., Bakhtizin, A. R., Makarov, V. L., Varenik, M. S., Aleksanov, D. S., Orlova, E. R., Svetlov, N. M., Shagas, N. L., Lugachev, M. I., Ul’yanova, N. V., Skripkin, K. G., Efimova, M. R., Dolgikh, E. A., Lugachev, M. I., Suits, V. P., Khorin, A. N., Plaskova, N. S., & Sapronov, S. N. (2023). Aktual’nye napravleniya matematicheskikh, statisticheskikh, instrumental’nykh i uchetno-analiticheskikh metodov issledovaniya v usloviyakh tsifrovizatsii [Current directions of mathematical, statistical, instrumental, accounting and analytical research methods in the context of digitalization]. Moscow: RUSAYNS, 366. (In Russ.)
Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Havlík, P., Valin, H., Bodirsky, B. L., Doelman, J. C., Fellmann, T., Kyle, P., Koopman, J. F. L., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason-D’Croz, D., Ochi, Y., Pérez Domínguez, I, Stehfest, E., Sulser, T. B., Tabeau, A., Takahashi, K., Takakura, J., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W.-J., Wiebe, K., & Witzke, P. (2018). Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy. Nature Climate Change, 8, 699-703. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x
Howard, P. H., & Sylvan, D. (2015). Expert Consensus on the Economics of Climate Change. Institute for Policy Integrity. https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep45821 (дата обращения: 10.12.2023).
Hsiang, S., & Kopp, R. E. (2018). An Economist’s Guide to Climate Change Science. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32 (4), 3-32. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.4.3
Kiselev, S. V., Romashkin, R. A., & Belugin, A. Yu. (2022). Russia’s agri-food exports until 2030: Projection from a partial equilibrium model. Zhurnal Novoy ekonomicheskoy assotsiatsii [Journal of the New economic association], (4(56)), 69-90. https://doi.org/10.31737/2221–2264-2022-56-4-4 (In Russ.)
Kiselev, S. V., Strokov, A. S., & Belugin, A. Yu. (2016). Projections of Russia’s agricultural development under the conditions of climate change. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 27, 548-556. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700716050063
Kremkova, A. I., Kundius, V. A., & Sudyko, M. V. (2023). Problems and prospects of development of the agro-industrial complex in the region. Epomen. Global, (S34), 239-247. (In Russ.)
Makarov, I. A., Chen, H., & Paltsev, S. V. (2018). Impacts of Paris agreement on Russian economy. Voprosy ekonomiki, (4), 76-94. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042–8736-2018-4-76-94 (In Russ.)
Matsko, K. O., Chepiga, M. S., & Dragulenko, V. V. (2023). Modeling the impact of climate change on economic. Industrial’naya ekonomika [Industrial economics], (S1), 126-130. (In Russ.)
Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W. D., & Shaw, D. (1994). The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis. American Economic Review, 84 (4), 753-771.
Moiseev, N. N. (1979). Systems analysis of dynamic processes in biosphere: Systems analysis and mathematical models. Vestnik AN SSSR [Herald of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR], (1), 97-108. (In Russ.)
Nakićenović, N., Sres, I., & Swart, R. (2000). Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press. https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/emissions_scenarios.pdf (дата обращения: 09.01.2024).
Nordhaus, W. (1994). Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change. MIT Press.
Parshukov, D. V. (2023). Investment activity in agriculture of the region: Status, problems and incentive mechanisms. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskiy i gumanitarnyy zhurnal [Socio-economic and humanitarian journal], (4(30)), 56-69. (In Russ.)
Pavlenko, V. I., & Glukhareva, E. K. (2010). Environmental changes and the economic growth in regions of the Russian Arctic. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 21, 158-164. https://doi.org/10.1134/S107570071002005X
Pindyck, R. S. (2015). The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy. MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep34749 (Date of access: 27.11.2023).
Pogrebnaya, N. V., Alekseenko, L. D., Zhivitsina, Yu. A., & Korovin, D. A. (2023). Ensuring the sustainable development of the agroindustrial complex of the Krasnodar territory by increasing the investment attractiveness of the region. Vestnik Akademii znaniy [Bulletin of the Academy of Knowledge], (2(55)), 166-170. (In Russ.)
Polzikov, D. A. (2022). Imperatives of Adaptation to Climate Changes in the Development of Agricultural Policy in Russia. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 33, 680-686. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700722060107
Porfiriev, B. N., Shirov, A. A., Kolpakov, A. Y., & Edinak, E. A. (2022). Opportunities and risks of the climate policy in Russia. Voprosy ekonomiki, (1), 72-89. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042–8736-2022-1-72-89 (In Russ.)
Porfiriev, B., & Kattsov, V. (2011). Implications of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Russia: Assessment and Forecast. Voprosy ekonomiki, (11), 94-108. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042–8736-2011-11-94-108 (In Russ.)
Porfiriev, B. N., & Eliseev, D. O. (2023). Scenario Forecasts of Expected Damage from Permafrost Degradation: Regional and Industry Issues. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 34, 651-659. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723050143
Porfiriev, B. N., Terent’ev, N. E., & Zinchenko, Yu. V. (2023). Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change: World Experience and Opportunities for Sustainable Social and Economic Development in Russia. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 34, 263-273. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723020119
Robinson, S., Mason-D’Croz, D., Dunston, S., Sulser, T., Robertson, R., Zhu, T., Gueneau, A., Pitois, G., & Rosegrant, M. W. (2015). The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1483. International Food Policy Research Institute.
Sandu, I. S., & Kirova, I. V. (2021). Features of state support for the development of agriculture in the Moscow region. Ekonomika sel’skokhozyaystvennykh i pererabatyvayushchikh predpriyatiy [Economy of Agricultural and Processing Enterprises], (11), 45-49. https://doi.org/10.31442/0235–2494-2021-0-11-45-49 (In Russ.)
Shalizi, Z., & Lecocq, F. (2010). To Mitigate or to Adapt: Is that the Question? Observations on an Appropriate Response to the Climate Change Challenge to Development Strategies. The World Bank Research Observer, 25 (2), 295-321. https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkp012
Siptits, S. O. (2023). Typical economic and mathematical model of low-carbon transformation of agrifood systems at the regional level and its application to assess the effectiveness of such strategies. Ekonomika i upravlenie: problemy, resheniya [Economics and management: problems, solutions], 1 (10), 57-71. https://doi.org/10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2023.10.01.006 (In Russ.)
Siptits, S. O., Romanenko, I. A., Strokov, S. N., & Abramov, A. A. (2010). Scenario analysis of Russia agrarian and food market development assisted by Russian module of aglink-cosimo international models system. Ekonomika sel’skokhozyaystvennykh i pererabatyvayushchikh predpriyatiy [Economy of Agricultural and Processing Enterprises], (6), 21-24. (In Russ.)
Siptits, S. O., Romanenko, I. A., & Evdokimova, N. E. (2021). Model Estimates of Climate Impact on Grain and Leguminous Crops Yield in the Regions of Russia. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 32, 169-176. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700721020106
Strokov, A. S., & Potashnikov, V. Yu. (2021). Modeling of regional development agricultural production in Russia using the GLOBO model. Natsional’naya nauchno-prakticheskaya konferentsiya, posvyashchennaya 85-letiyu so dnya rozhdeniya A. M. Gataulina [National scientific and practical conference dedicated to the 85th anniversary of the birth of A. M. Gataulin] (pp. 167-179). Moscow: JSC Megapolis (In Russ.)
Svetlov, N. M. (2023). Methodology for selecting regions to study the adaptation of agriculture to climate change. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of regions], 19 (2), 480-493. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-14 (In Russ.)
Svetlov, N., & Shishkina, E. (2023). Spatial model of partial equilibria in wholesale markets of agricultural products of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Iskusstvennye obshchestva [Artificial societies], 18 (S1). https://doi.org/10.18254/S207751800028484-1 (In Russ.)
Warren, R. (2011). The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369 (1934), 217-241. http://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0271
Загрузки
Опубликован
Как цитировать
Выпуск
Раздел
Лицензия
Copyright (c) 2024 Светлов Николай Михайлович
Это произведение доступно по лицензии Creative Commons «Attribution» («Атрибуция») 4.0 Всемирная.
