Влияние теневой экономики на налоговые поступления в странах Африки южнее Сахары: динамический панельный анализ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2025-2-22Ключевые слова:
теневая экономика, налоговые поступления, уровень безработицы, открытость внешней торговли, ВВП, страны Африки южнее Сахары, модель GMMАннотация
Теневая экономика в странах Африки южнее Сахары (АЮС) приводит к снижению налоговых поступлений государств. Изучение данной проблемы в контексте стран АЮС позволяет восполнить важный пробел в исследованиях по этой теме. В анализ включены данные по 15 странам АЮС за 15-летний период, применяется метод оценки GMM по Ареллано-Боверу / Бланделлу-Бонду. Валидность модели подтверждена с помощью тестов автокорреляции Ареллано-Бонда и критерия хи-квадрат Вальда, что гарантирует надёжность полученных результатов. Дескриптивный анализ показывает, что в странах АЮС налоговые поступления относительно невелики (в среднем 15,7 % ВВП), а масштабы теневой экономики значительны (в среднем 36,2 % ВВП). Установлено, что теневая экономика оказывает значительное негативное влияние на налоговые поступления (â = -0,249, p = 0,010). Налоговые поступления также демонстрируют эффект инерции — их текущий уровень существенно зависит от уровня в предыдущие периоды. Из контрольных переменных положительное влияние на налоговые поступления оказывают уровень безработицы (â = 0,315, p = 0,002) и открытость торговли (â = 0,057, p = 0,006). Прямые иностранные инвестиции (â = -0,022, p = 0,071) и доходы от добычи нефти (â = -0,087, p = 0,002), наоборот, отрицательно влияют на налоговые поступления, что, в свою очередь, отражает роль таких факторов, как налоговые льготы и ресурсная зависимость. Контроль над коррупцией оказывает умеренно положительное влияние на налоговые поступления (â = 2,950, p = 0,096). Такие переменные, как ВВП на душу населения, инфляция, доля сельского хозяйства в экономике, число налогов, уплачиваемых бизнесом, а также качество регулирования, не имеют значимого влияния. Представленное исследование подчёркивает пагубное воздействие теневой экономики на налоговые поступления в странах АЮС и указывает на необходимость разработки мер по формализации экономической деятельности и усилению налоговой дисциплины. Теоретическая значимость заключается в его вкладе в существующее поле исследований государственных финансов, а практическая — в рекомендациях по разработке устойчивой налоговой политики. Перспективным направлением для дальнейших исследований станет включение в анализ более широкого круга стран.
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