2411-14062411-1406

10.17059/ekon.reg.2025-2-22

Effect of the Shadow Economy on Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Влияние теневой экономики на налоговые поступления в странах Африки южнее Сахары: динамический панельный анализ

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8230-2659

Bati

Bantyergu Engida

Бати

Бантыергу Енгида

bantye2769@hu.edu.et

Hawassa UniversityУниверситет Хавасса

212582592

https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/1141

https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/1141/442

The shadow economy in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries has become a persistent challenge that undermines government tax revenues. This study investigates the shadow economy’s adverse effect on tax revenue in SSA, addressing a critical gap in the region’s fiscal research. The analysis covers 15 SSA countries over the period of 15 years, using the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond GMM estimation method. Model validity was confirmed through Arellano-Bond autocorrelation tests and a significant Wald chi-squared statistic, ensuring robust results. Descriptive analysis reveals that SSA countries exhibit relatively low tax revenue (15.7 % of GDP, on average) alongside a sizable shadow economy (36.2 % of GDP). The shadow economy was found to exert a significant negative effect on tax revenue (â = -0.249, p = 0.010). Tax revenues also display persistence, with prior tax revenue significantly influencing current levels. Among the control variables, unemployment (â = 0.315, p = 0.002) and trade openness (â = 0.057, p = 0.006) positively affect tax revenue. Conversely, foreign direct investment (â = – 0.022, p = 0.071) and oil revenue (â = -0.087, p = 0.002) have negative impacts, reflecting tax incentives and resource dependency. Control of corruption exerts a marginally positive influence (â = 2.950, p = 0.096). GDP per capita, inflation, the role of agriculture, the number of taxes paid by businesses, and regulatory quality show no significant effects. This study highlights the shadow economy’s detrimental impact on tax revenue in SSA and underscores the need for policies aimed at formalizing informal activities and strengthening tax compliance. The findings contribute to public finance research and provide practical guidance for designing sustainable fiscal policies. Avenues for future research could include expanding the analysis to a broader set of countries.

Теневая экономика в странах Африки южнее Сахары (АЮС) приводит к снижению налоговых поступлений государств. Изучение данной проблемы в контексте стран АЮС позволяет восполнить важный пробел в исследованиях по этой теме. В анализ включены данные по 15 странам АЮС за 15-летний период, применяется метод оценки GMM по Ареллано-Боверу / Бланделлу-Бонду. Валидность модели подтверждена с помощью тестов автокорреляции Ареллано-Бонда и критерия хи-квадрат Вальда, что гарантирует надёжность полученных результатов. Дескриптивный анализ показывает, что в странах АЮС налоговые поступления относительно невелики (в среднем 15,7 % ВВП), а масштабы теневой экономики значительны (в среднем 36,2 % ВВП). Установлено, что теневая экономика оказывает значительное негативное влияние на налоговые поступления (â = -0,249, p = 0,010). Налоговые поступления также демонстрируют эффект инерции — их текущий уровень существенно зависит от уровня в предыдущие периоды. Из контрольных переменных положительное влияние на налоговые поступления оказывают уровень безработицы (â = 0,315, p = 0,002) и открытость торговли (â = 0,057, p = 0,006). Прямые иностранные инвестиции (â = -0,022, p = 0,071) и доходы от добычи нефти (â = -0,087, p = 0,002), наоборот, отрицательно влияют на налоговые поступления, что, в свою очередь, отражает роль таких факторов, как налоговые льготы и ресурсная зависимость. Контроль над коррупцией оказывает умеренно положительное влияние на налоговые поступления (â = 2,950, p = 0,096). Такие переменные, как ВВП на душу населения, инфляция, доля сельского хозяйства в экономике, число налогов, уплачиваемых бизнесом, а также качество регулирования, не имеют значимого влияния. Представленное исследование подчёркивает пагубное воздействие теневой экономики на налоговые поступления в странах АЮС и указывает на необходимость разработки мер по формализации экономической деятельности и усилению налоговой дисциплины. Теоретическая значимость заключается в его вкладе в существующее поле исследований государственных финансов, а практическая — в рекомендациях по разработке устойчивой налоговой политики. Перспективным направлением для дальнейших исследований станет включение в анализ более широкого круга стран.

shadow economytax revenueunemploymenttrade opennessGDPSub-Saharan AfricaGMM model

теневая экономиканалоговые поступленияуровень безработицыоткрытость внешней торговлиВВПстраны Африки южнее Сахарымодель GMM

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