Methodological Approach to Assessing the Impact of External Factors on Financial Risks of Retailers Considering Regional Aspects
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-3-23Keywords:
financial risks, risk management, profit, profitability, structural risk, retail, regional aspect, macroeconomic indicators, mesoeconomic factors, regression analysis, econometric modelling, combined leverage, cost structureAbstract
Financial risk management in retail companies requires considering both internal and external risk factors. Contemporary researchers primarily focus on macroeconomic indicators disregarding regional aspects that might exacerbate key financial risks for multi-regional enterprises. The study aims to develop a methodological approach to assess and predict the impact of mesoeconomic factors on financial risks of retailers. Particular attention is paid to downside (profit and profitability) and structural risks. The presented approach implements the authors’ concept based on the application of correlation-regression analysis of relationship between retail trade turnover of these companies and external factors. The study employs mathematical statistics and econometric analysis. Publicly accessible official data from the Federal State Statistics Service, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the United Nations for 2005–2021 were analysed. The research investigates changes in profit, profitability and combined leverage (which combines financial and operating leverage) affected by external factors. The proposed methodology for assessing the impact of external factors on financial indicators revealed their heterogeneous effect on retail trade turnover depending on the region. The study introduced a novel integrated leverage metric and its analytical estimates, which quantify the impact of external factor variations on profit and profitability of retail companies. The proposed methodology and resulting estimates can be used by financial, investment and managerial decision-makers to identify external factors affecting financial risks of companies at the meso level. The study contributes theoretically by developing a methodological approach to assessing and predicting financial risks considering regional aspects.
References
Bayar, Y., & Ceylan, I. E. (2017). Impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on firm profitability: a case of BIST non-metallic mineral products sector. Journal of Business, Economics and Finance (JBEF), 6 (4), 318-327. http://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.764
Busygin, E. G. (2020). The speculative nature of public companies capitalization factors. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoy teorii [Russian Journal of Economic Theory], 17 (1), 144-155. https://doi.org/10.31063/2073–6517/2020.17-1.11 (In Russ.)
Choi, S. B., Sauka, K., & Lee, M. (2024). Dynamic Capital Structure Adjustment: An Integrated Analysis of Firm-Specific and Macroeconomic Factors in Korean Firms. International Journal of Financial Studies, 12 (1), 26. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12010026
Dewi, V. I., Tan Lian Soei, C., & Surjoko, F. O. (2019). The impact of macroeconomic factors on firms profitability (evidence from fast moving consumer good firms listed on Indonesian stock exchange). Academy of accounting and financial studies journal, 23 (1), 1-6. https://repository.unpar.ac.id/handle/123456789/9396
Dyakov, S. A., Mikhleva, I. I., & Majuga, S. E. (2021). Management and assessment of financial risks of the enterprise using digital technologies. Estestvenno-gumanitarnye issledovaniya [Natural-Humanitarian Studies], (36(4)), 117-122. (In Russ.)
Fedorova, E. A., Musienko, S. O., & Fedorov, F. Yu. (2020). Analysis of the external factors influence on the forecasting of bankruptcy of Russian companies. Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta. Ekomomika [St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies], 36 (1), 117–133. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2020.106 (In Russ.)
Gazilas, E., & Belesis, N. (2023). The Financial Performance and Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Greek Retail Landscape. Actual Problems of Economics, 10 (269), 6-25. http://dx.doi.org/10.32752/1993–6788-2023-1-269-6-25
Kalaidin, E. N., & Spirina, S. G. (2014). Formation and assessment of financial risk factors in activities of economic subjects. Financy i kredit [Finance and Credit], 24 (600), 36-44. (In Russ.)
Kharitonov S. V., Plyasova S. V. (2014). Allocation and justification of website cost factors using Ms Excel. Prikladnaya informatika [Applied Informatics], 3 (51), 119–123. (In Russ.)
Kovalev, V. V., & Drachevsky, I. S. (2020). Dividend policy as a factor for managing company value: Comparing trends in emerging markets. St. Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies, 36 (1), 95–116. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2020.105
Kunin, V. A, & Peshko, S. I. (2023). Forecasting of financial risks of decline in profit and profitability of companies in the retail industry on the basis of correlation and regression analysis of macroeconomic factors. Ekonomika i upravlenie [Economics and Management], 29 (6), 690-708. https://doi.org/10.35854/1998–1627-2023-6-690-708 (In Russ.)
Kuznetsov, N. V. (2023). Using additive regression models for short-term forecasting of financial macro-indicators and assessing the potential for financing megaprojects. Financy i upravlenie [Finance and Management], (2), 15-26. https://www.doi.org/10.25136/2409–7802.2023.2.43657 (In Russ.)
Mitra, G., Gupta, V., & Gupta, G. (2023). Impact of macroeconomic factors on firm performance: Empirical evidence from India. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 20 (4), 1-12. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.20(4).2023.01
Musienko, S. O. (2017). Financial analysis and forecasting of the results of small businesses performance based on regression model. Aktualnye problemy ekonomiki i prava [Actual Problems of Economics and Law], 11 (1), 18-33. https://doi.org/10.21202/1993-047X.11.2017.1.18-33 (In Russ.)
Pavlyukova, A. V. (2020). Risk management as the basis of the financial security system of organizations in Southern Russia. Estestvenno-gumanitarnye issledovaniya [Natural-Humanitarian Studies], (27(1)), 171-173. (In Russ.)
Pronina, E. V., Pikhtilkova, O. A., Gorshunova, T. A., Morozova, T. A., & Kuznetsova E. Yu. (2023). The role of regression analysis in forecasting the economic indicators of companies. Moskovskiy ekonomicheskiy zhurnal [Moscow Economic Journal], 8 (4), 452-466. (In Russ.)
Selezneva, Z. V., & Evdokimova, M. S. (2022). Endogeneity problem in corporate finance: Theory and practice. Finansy: teoriya i praktika [Finance: Theory and Practice], 26 (3), 64-84. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587–5671-2022-26-3-64-84 (In Russ.)
Sidorchukova, E. V., Boyko, I. P., Sergeeva, V. A., & Shelakova, A. A. (2022). Correlation and regression analysis as the method of studying and forecasting economic indicators. Estestvenno-gumanitarnye issledovaniya [Natural-Humanitarian Studies], (42(4)), 418-422. (In Russ.)
Sinyavskaya, E. E. (2020). Modern paradigms of Russian retail. Peterburgskiy ekonomicheskiy zhurnal [Petersburg Economic Journal], (3), 32-42. https://www.doi.org/10.24411/2307–5368-2020–00021 (In Russ.)
Smagin, R. S., & Lebedeva, T. V. (2021). Analysis and forecasting financial risks of retail trading networks. Intellekt. Innovatsii. Investitsii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments], (1), 54–64. https://doi.org/10.25198/2077–7175-2021-1-54 (In Russ.)
Suhermawan, D., Mahjudin, M., & Soelistya, D. (2023). Impact of fundamental macroeconomic factors, cost efficiency, firms policies with systematic risk as mediator on Islamic fintech welfare performance: evidence from an Indonesia’s Islamic fintech institution. Journal of Managerial Sciences and Studies, 1 (2), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.61160/jomss.v1i2.9
Volkov, D. L. (2004). Models for assessing the fundamental value of companies’ equity capital: the problem of compatibility. Vestnik Sankt-Peterbuegskogo universiteta. Menedgement [Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Management], (3), 3-36. (In Russ.)
Yuklasova, A. V., & Makarova, A. A. (2015). Multivariate correlation and regression analysis of profitability of Gazbank. Vestnik Samarskogo gosudarstvennogo unirsiteta. Seriya: Ekonomika i upravlenie [Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management], 9-1 (131), 277–283. (In Russ.)
Zhukov, A. A., Nikulin, E. D., & Shchuchkin, D. A. (2022). Bankruptcy Risk Factors of Russian Companies. Financy: teoriya i praktika [Finance: Theory and Practice], 26 (6), 131-155. https://doi.org/10.26794/2587–5671-2022-26-6-131-155 (In Russ.)
Zhukov, B. M. (2006). The evolution of flexible development of an enterprise based on the construction of its capitalization. Ekonomicheskiy vestnik rostovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta [Vestnik of Rostov State Economic University], (1), 45-49. (In Russ.)
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Кунин Владимир Александрович , Пешко Станислав Игоревич , Румянцева Анна Юрьевна
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
