Риски и перспективы развития экспорта регионов России в условиях глобального энергетического перехода
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-4-14Ключевые слова:
экспорт, глобальный энергетический переход, переходные климатические риски, экологическое регулирование, регионы России, гравитационная модельАннотация
Интенсификация экспорта является приоритетом России, что обусловлено способностью экспортной деятельности обеспечить устойчивый экономический рост. В данном контексте на первый план выходит изучение детерминант развития экспорта. Российские экспортеры сталкиваются с рядом ограничивающих факторов. Большинство рисков исследованы, а меры по их минимизации включены в экспортные стратегии. Для российских регионов остается неизученной роль глобальной климатической повестки и процесса энергетического перехода в развитии экспорта. Намерения стран по достижению экологических целей создают новый тип экономических рисков для экспортеров — переходные климатические риски, которые в значительной мере интенсифицировались после февраля 2022 г. В исследовании рассматривается комплексное влияние глобального энергетического перехода на экспортные потоки российских регионов. Кроме того, цель работы — выявить региональные факторы, определяющие влияние энергетического перехода на объемы экспорта. В исследовании выдвинута гипотеза о том, что глобальный энергетический переход может генерировать как риски, так и возможности для российских регионов, причем эффект может варьироваться в зависимости от выбранного компонента энергетического перехода, а также социально-экономических и экологических характеристик региона. Оценка гравитационного уравнения с помощью метода псевдомаксимального правдоподобия Пуассона (PPML) показывает, что влияние глобального энергетического перехода на экспортные показатели российских регионов носит разнонаправленный характер. Во-первых, экологическое регулирование торговых партнеров создает риски для многих регионов России, сокращая экспорт на 0,3 %, но увеличивает экспорт из регионов с наиболее благоприятными социально-экономическими условиями для инновационной деятельности (на 0,3 %) и активной региональной экологической политикой (на 0,7 %). Во-вторых, производство альтернативных источников энергии в странах-партнерах снижает российский экспорт на 0,2 %. Наконец, в условиях глобального энергетического перехода усиливается экспорт регионов России, богатых полезными ископаемыми. Результаты исследования расширяют существующую литературу по стимулированию российской внешнеэкономической деятельности и способствуют выработке стратегий развития экспорта.
Библиографические ссылки
Cagatay, S., & Mihci, H. (2006). Degree of environmental stringency and the impact on trade patterns. Journal of Economic Studies, 33 (1), 30–51. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580610639884
Cergibozan, R. (2022). Renewable Energy Sources as a Solution for Energy Security Risk: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries. Renewable Energy, 183, 617–626. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.11.056
Chen, X., He, J., & Qiao, L. (2022). Does environmental regulation affect the export competitiveness of Chinese firms? Journal of Environmental Management, 317, 115199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115199
Chepeliev, M., Hertel, T., & Van Der Mensbrugghe, D. (2022). Cutting Russia’s fossil fuel exports: Short-term economic pain for long-term environmental gain. World Economy, 45 (11), 3314–3343. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13301
Cherepovitsyn, A., & Solovyova, V. (2022). Prospects for the Development of the Russian Rare-Earth Metal Industry in view of the Global Energy Transition—A Review. Energies, 15 (1), 387. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15010387
Cherepovitsyn, A., Solovyova, V., & Dmitrieva, D. (2023). New challenges for the sustainable development of the rare-earth metals sector in Russia: Transforming industrial policies. Resources Policy, 81, 103347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103347
Chu, L. K. (2024). Towards achieving energy transition goal: How do green financial policy, environmental tax, economic complexity, and globalization matter? Renewable Energy, 222, 119933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.119933
Chupina, D. A. (2022). Impact of the Green Deal on copper imports from Russia to the EU. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 1, 110–125. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042–8736-2022-1-110-125
Copeland, B. R. (1996). Pollution content tariffs, environmental rent shifting, and the control of cross-border pollution. Journal of International Economics, 40 (3–4), 459–476. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022–1996(95)01415-2
Correia, S., Guimarães, P., & Zylkin, T. (2020). Fast Poisson Estimation with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects. The Stata Journal, 20 (1), 95–115. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X20909691
Costantini, V., & Mazzanti, M. (2012). On the Green and Innovative Side of Trade Competitiveness? The Impact of Environmental Policies and Innovation on EU Exports. Research Policy, 41 (1), 132–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2011.08.004
Crowley-Vigneau, A., Kalyuzhnova, Y., & Ketenci, N. (2023). What Motivates the ‘Green’ Transition: Russian and European Perspectives. Resources Policy, 81, 103128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103128
Dardati, E., & Saygili, M. (2021). Are Exporters Cleaner? Another Look at the Trade-Environment Nexus. Energy Economics, 95, 105097. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105097
Dmitrieva, D., Chanysheva, A., & Solovyova, V. (2023). A Conceptual Model for the Sustainable Development of the Arctic’s Mineral Resources Considering Current Global Trends: Future Scenarios, Key Actors, and Recommendations. Resources, 12 (6), 63. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources12060063
Ederington, J., & Minier, J. (2003). Is Environmental Policy a Secondary Trade Barrier? An Empirical Analysis. Canadian Journal of Economics, 36 (1), 137–154. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540–5982.00007
Fedyunina, A. A., Simachev, Y. V., & Drapkin, I. M. (2023). Intensive and Extensive Margins of Export: Determinants of Economic Growth in Russian Regions under Sanctions. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of Regions], 19 (3), 884–897. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-3-20 (In Russ.)
Fedyunina, A., & Radosevic, S. (2022). The Relationship between R&D, Innovation and Productivity in Emerging Economies: CDM Model and Alternatives. Economic Systems, 46 (3), 100998. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.100998
Glazatova, M., & Daniltsev, A. (2020). Main trends in the development of world trade and structural features of Russian exports. Journal of the New Economic Association, 45 (1), 183–192. https://doi.org/10.31737/2221–2264-2020-45-1-8 (In Russ.).
Gong, M., You, Z., Wang, L., & Cheng, J. (2020). Environmental Regulation, Trade Comparative Advantage, and the Manufacturing Industry’s Green Transformation and Upgrading. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17 (8), 2823. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082823
Grandell, L., Lehtilä, A., Kivinen, M., Koljonen, T., Kihlman, S., & Lauri, L. (2016). Role of Critical Metals in the Future Markets of Clean Energy Technologies. Renewable Energy, 95, 53–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.03.102
Hamaguchi, Y. (2023). Environmental Tax Evasion as a Determinant of the Porter and Pollution Haven Hypotheses in a Corrupt Political System. Economic Analysis and Policy, 79, 610–633. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2023.06.032
He, L., & Huang, G. (2021). How can Export Improve Firms’ Energy Efficiency? The Role of Innovation Investment. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 59, 90–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.08.017
Islam, M. & Sohag, K. (2023). Mineral Import Demand and Wind Energy Deployment in the USA: Co-integration and Counterfactual Analysis Approaches. Mineral Economics, 36, 697–717https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-023-00382-2
Islam, M. M., Sohag, K., & Alam, M. M. (2022). Mineral Import Demand and Clean Energy Transitions in the Top Mineral-Importing Countries. Resources Policy, 78, 102893. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102893
Islam, M. M., Tareque, M., Moniruzzaman, M., & Ali, M. (2022). Assessment of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: The Case of Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of regions], 18 (3), 910–925. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-20
Kadochnikov, S. M., & Fedyunina, A. A. (2013). Economic Growth due to Export Externalities: A Spatial Econometric Analysis for Russian Regions, 2003–2008. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 6 (4), 358. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijepee.2013.057909
Krane, J., & Idel, R. (2021). More Transitions, Less Risk: How Renewable Energy Reduces Risks from Mining, Trade and Political Dependence. Energy Research & Social Science, 82, 102311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102311
LaPlue, L. D. (2019). The Environmental Effects of Trade Within and Across Sectors. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 94, 118–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.01.007
Lee, D., & Zhang, H. (2022). Export Diversification in Low-Income Countries and Small States: Do Country Size and Income Level Matter? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 60, 250–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.11.017
Liang, Y., Kleijn, R., & Van Der Voet, E. (2023). Increase in Demand for Critical Materials Under IEA Net-Zero Emission by 2050 Scenario. Applied Energy, 346, 121400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121400
Lundaev, V., Solomon, A. A., Le, T., Lohrmann, A., & Breyer, C. (2023). Review of Critical Materials for the Energy Transition, an Analysis of Global Resources and Production Databases and the State of Material Circularity. Minerals Engineering, 203, 108282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mineng.2023.108282
Ma, T., & Wang, Y. (2021). Globalization and Environment: Effects of International Trade on Emission Intensity Reduction of Pollutants Causing Global and Local Concerns. Journal of Environmental Management, 297, 113249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113249
Makarov, I. A., Chen, H., & Paltsev, S. V. (2018). Impacts of Paris Agreement on Russian economy. Voprosy Ekonomiki, (4), 76–94. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042–8736-2018-4-76-94 (In Russ.)
Makarov, I., Chen, H., & Paltsev, S. (2020). Impacts of Climate Change Policies Worldwide on the Russian economy. Climate Policy, 20 (10), 1242–1256. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1781047
Malca, O., Peña-Vinces, J., & Acedo, F. (2019). Export Promotion Programmes as Export Performance Catalysts for SMEs: Insights from an Emerging Economy. Small Business Economics, 55, 831–851. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-019-00185-2
Martus, E. (2019). Russian Industry Responses to Climate Change: The Case of the Metals and Mining Sector. Climate Policy, 19 (1), 17–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1448254
Mitrova, T., & Melnikov, Y. (2019). Energy Transition in Russia. Energy Transitions, 3, 73–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41825-019-00016-8
Nordhaus, W. (2015). Climate Clubs: Overcoming Free-riding in International Climate Policy. American Economic Review, 105 (4), 1339–1370. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.15000001
Olawuyi, D. S. (2021). Can MENA Extractive Industries Support the Global Energy Transition? Current Opportunities and Future Directions. The Extractive Industries and Society, 8 (2), 100685. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2020.02.003
Perdana, S., Vielle, M., & Schenckery, M. (2022). European Economic Impacts of Cutting Energy Imports from Russia: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. Energy Strategy Reviews, 44 (4), 101006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.101006
Porter, M. E., & Van Der Linde, C. (1995). Toward A New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9 (4), 97–118. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.9.4.97
Qiang, O., Tian-Tian, W., Ying, D., Zhu-Ping, L., & Jahanger, A. (2021). The impact of environmental regulations on export trade at provincial level in China: evidence from panel quantile regression. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29 (16), 24098–24111. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17676-z
Sokhanvar, A., & Sohag, K. (2022). What Does the Clean Energy Transition Look Like for Russian Oil Exports? Energy Science & Engineering, 10 (12), 4512–4519. https://doi.org/10.1002/ese3.1286
Srivastava, N. (2023). Trade in Critical Minerals: Revisiting the Legal Regime in Times of Energy Transition. Resources Policy, 82, 103491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103491
Syropoulos, C., Felbermayr, G., Kirilakha, A., Yalcin, E., & Yotov, Y. (2023). The Global Sanctions Data Base Release 3: COVID-19, Russia, and Multilateral Sanctions. Review of International Economics, 32 (1), 12–48. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12691
Tsurumi, T., Managi, S., & Hibiki, A. (2015). Do Environmental Regulations Increase Bilateral Trade Flows? The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 15 (4), 1549–1577. https://doi.org/10.1515/BEJEAP-2014–0164
Van Beers, C., & Van den Bergh, J. C. J. M. (1997). An Empirical Multi-Country Analysis of the Impact of Environmental Regulations on Foreign Trade Flows. Kyklos, 50 (1), 29–46. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467–6435.00002
Volchkova, N. (2013). How Costly is Exporting: An Empirical Assessment of Trade Model with Heterogeneous Firms? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2243135
Wang, J., Jin, Z., Yang, M., & Naqvi, S. (2021). Does Strict Environmental Regulation Enhance the Global Value Chains Position of China’s Industrial Sector? Petroleum Science, 18 (6), 1899–1909. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petsci.2021.09.023
Wang, L., Long, Y., & Li, C. (2022). Research on the Impact Mechanism of Heterogeneous Environmental Regulation on Enterprise Green Technology Innovation. Journal of Environmental Management, 322, 116127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116127
Watari, T., McLellan, B. C., Giurco, D., Dominish, E., Yamasue, E., & Nansai, K. (2019). Total material requirement for the global energy transition to 2050: A focus on transport and electricity. Resources Conservation and Recycling, 148, 91–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.05.015
Xie, J., Sun, Q., Wang, S., Li, X., & Fan, F. (2020). Does Environmental Regulation Affect Export Quality? Theory and Evidence from China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17 (21), 8237. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17218237
Xu, X. (2000). International Trade and Environmental Regulation: Time Series Evidence and Cross Section Test. Environmental and Resource Economics, 17 (3), 233-257. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026428806818
Yang, S., Jahanger, A., Hossain, M. R., Wang, Y., & Balsalobre-Lorente, D. (2023). Enhancing export product quality through innovative cities: A firm-level quasi-natural experiment in China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 79, 462–478. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2023.06.031
Yotov, Y. V., Piermartini, R., Monteiro, J., & Larch, M. (2016). An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model. https://doi.org/10.30875/abc0167e-en
Yu, H., & Zheng, C. (2024). Environmental Regulation, Land Use Efficiency and Industrial Structure Upgrading: Test Analysis Based on Spatial Durbin Model and Threshold Effect. Heliyon, 10 (5), e26508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26508
Zhu, X., Ding, Q., & Chen, J. (2022). How does Critical Mineral Trade Pattern Affect Renewable Energy Development? The Mediating Role of Renewable Energy Technological Progress. Energy Economics, 112, 106164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106164
Загрузки
Опубликован
Как цитировать
Выпуск
Раздел
Лицензия
Copyright (c) 2024 Соколова Юлия Дмитриевна
Это произведение доступно по лицензии Creative Commons «Attribution» («Атрибуция») 4.0 Всемирная.
