2072-64142411-1406

10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-4-14

Risks and Prospects for Russian Regional Export Development in the Face of the Global Energy Transition

Риски и перспективы развития экспорта регионов России в условиях глобального энергетического перехода

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5991-3061

Sokolova

Yulia D.

Соколова

Юлия Дмитриевна

yu.sokolova1999@gmail.com

Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B. N. YeltsinУральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента России Б. Н. Ельцина

20411901207

2024

Yulia D. Sokolova

Юлия Дмитриевна Соколова

CC BY 4.0

https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/798

https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/798/390

Export development is a priority for the Russian economy, as it plays a crucial role in ensuring sustainable economic growth. In this context, understanding the determinants of regional export development is essential. In their export activities, Russian companies face a range of limiting factors, many of which have been thoroughly examined, with corresponding mitigation strategies incorporated into export plans. However, the role of the global climate agenda and the energy transition in shaping export development remains largely unexplored for Russian regions. The shift of focus to fulfilling environmental goals creates a new type of economic risk for exporters — transitional climate risks, which intensified after February 2022. This study investigates the comprehensive impact of the global energy transition on export flows in Russian regions and identifies region-specific factors that influence how the energy shift affects export levels. The hypothesis is that the global energy transition creates both risks and opportunities for Russian regions, with varying effects depending on the specific components of the energy shift and the socio-economic and environmental characteristics of each region. Using the gravity equation with the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique, the study finds that the impact of the global energy transition on Russian regional exports is multidirectional. First, environmental regulations in partner countries reduce exports from many Russian regions by 0.3 %, though regions with favorable socio-economic conditions for innovation and active regional environmental policies see an increase in exports—by 0.3 % and 0.7 %, respectively. Second, the production of alternative energy in partner countries decreases Russian exports by 0.2 %. Finally, exports from mineral-abundant Russian regions benefit from the global energy transition. These findings contribute to the literature on Russian export promotion and offer valuable policy insights for addressing the challenges and opportunities posed by the global energy transition.

Интенсификация экспорта является приоритетом России, что обусловлено способностью экспортной деятельности обеспечить устойчивый экономический рост. В данном контексте на первый план выходит изучение детерминант развития экспорта. Российские экспортеры сталкиваются с рядом ограничивающих факторов. Большинство рисков исследованы, а меры по их минимизации включены в экспортные стратегии. Для российских регионов остается неизученной роль глобальной климатической повестки и процесса энергетического перехода в развитии экспорта. Намерения стран по достижению экологических целей создают новый тип экономических рисков для экспортеров — переходные климатические риски, которые в значительной мере интенсифицировались после февраля 2022 г. В исследовании рассматривается комплексное влияние глобального энергетического перехода на экспортные потоки российских регионов. Кроме того, цель работы — выявить региональные факторы, определяющие влияние энергетического перехода на объемы экспорта. В исследовании выдвинута гипотеза о том, что глобальный энергетический переход может генерировать как риски, так и возможности для российских регионов, причем эффект может варьироваться в зависимости от выбранного компонента энергетического перехода, а также социально-экономических и экологических характеристик региона. Оценка гравитационного уравнения с помощью метода псевдомаксимального правдоподобия Пуассона (PPML) показывает, что влияние глобального энергетического перехода на экспортные показатели российских регионов носит разнонаправленный характер. Во-первых, экологическое регулирование торговых партнеров создает риски для многих регионов России, сокращая экспорт на 0,3 %, но увеличивает экспорт из регионов с наиболее благоприятными социально-экономическими условиями для инновационной деятельности (на 0,3 %) и активной региональной экологической политикой (на 0,7 %). Во-вторых, производство альтернативных источников энергии в странах-партнерах снижает российский экспорт на 0,2 %. Наконец, в условиях глобального энергетического перехода усиливается экспорт регионов России, богатых полезными ископаемыми. Результаты исследования расширяют существующую литературу по стимулированию российской внешнеэкономической деятельности и способствуют выработке стратегий развития экспорта.

export, global energy transition, transitional climate risks, environmental regulation, Russian regions, Gravity Model

экспорт, глобальный энергетический переход, переходные климатические риски, экологическое регулирование, регионы России, гравитационная модель.атические рискиэкологическое регулированиерегионы Россиигравитационная модель

The research was funded by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Ural Federal University Program of Development within the Priority-2030 Program).

Исследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке Министерства науки и высшего образования Российской Федерации в рамках Программы развития Уральского федерального университета имени первого Президента России Б. Н. Ельцина в соответствии с программой стратегического академического лидерства «Приоритет-2030».

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