Воздействие инфляционной неопределенности на темпы экономического роста в развивающихся странах с таргетированием инфляции
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2025-2-21Ключевые слова:
инфляционная неопределённость, экономический рост, модели ARMA-GARCH, симметричная и асимметричная причинно-следственная связь, экономика развивающихся странАннотация
После глобального финансового кризиса 2008–2009 гг. страны как с развивающейся, так и с развитой экономикой столкнулись с ростом макроэкономической неопределенности. Несмотря на то, что макроэкономическим рискам посвящено множество исследований, существует заметный пробел в понимании асимметричных причинно-следственных связей между инфляционной неопределённостью и экономическим ростом в развивающихся странах с инфляционным таргетированием. Настоящее исследование направлено на восполнение этого пробела с помощью анализа симметричной и асимметричной причинно-следственной связи между инфляционной неопределённостью и темпами экономического роста в Бразилии, Болгарии, Чехии, Греции, Индии, Республике Корея, Мексике, России и Турции. Тесты на асимметричную причинно-следственную связь выявляют более тонкие взаимосвязи между показателями, что, в свою очередь, позволяет выработать меры по укреплению макроэкономической стабильности и усилению эффективности экономической политики. В исследовании используется модель ARMA-GARCH для оценки инфляционной неопределённости, а также применяются тесты на симметричную и асимметричную причинно-следственную связь. Установлено наличие однонаправленной причинной связи между инфляционной неопределенностью и экономическим ростом в Бразилии и Болгарии, а также между экономическим ростом и инфляционной неопределённостью в России и Турции. Кроме того, анализ асимметричных шоков показывает, что отрицательные шоки инфляционной неопределённости сопровождаются снижением темпов экономического роста в России и Республике Корея, тогда как положительные шоки инфляционной неопределённости связаны с ускорением экономического роста в Индии. Данные результаты могут использоваться для формирования более эффективной денежно-кредитной политики в развивающихся странах. Дальнейшие исследования могут быть связаны с расширением географии анализа и включением дополнительных макроэкономических переменных для верификации результатов и более глубокого понимания динамики инфляционной неопределённости.
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