Неравенство распределения дохода и экономический рост в регионах России в посткризисный период
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/2015-3-9Ключевые слова:
неравенство распределения доходов, экономический рост, коэффициент Джини, конкурентоспособность регионов, регрессионное моделирование, валовой региональный продуктАннотация
Дифференциация распределения доходов, согласно результатам исследований ряда авторов - один из факторов, влияющих на экономический рост. Кроме того, важным направлением исследований в настоящее время является региональный аспект такого влияния. В представленной статье оценивается влияние неравенства распределения дохода на экономический рост на примере региональных данных Российской Федерации в посткризисный период. Результаты исследования представлены рядом взаимодополняющих пространственных регрессионных моделей, оценивающих различия в темпах прироста региональных ВРП в России в посткризисный 2010 г. Объясняющими переменными выступают коэффициенты Джини в качестве показателя, характеризующего уровень неравенства в доходах, а также ряд других показателей, характеризующих динамику развития регионов в течение 2006-2010 гг. Отдельно исследуется влияние кризиса 2008 г. на различия регионов по уровню значений зависимой переменной. В результате регрессионного моделирования показано наличие положительного влияния прироста неравенства в распределении дохода на темп экономического роста в регионах России. Общим результатом работы является подтверждение гипотезы о существовании влияния неравенства в доходах на экономический рост на региональном уровне в России. Обнаруженный эффект положителен и статистически значим, имеет относительно краткосрочный характер, как с точки зрения зависимой переменной (в модели использован годовой темп прироста ВРП), так и с [12] точки зрения временного лага между годом наблюдения зависимой переменной - 2010 г., и периодом наблюдения, для которого коэффициент Джини значим в регрессионном уравнении (2006-2007 гг.). Значения докризисного коэффициента Джини не определяют различия темпов экономического роста в регионах России в 2011-2012 гг. Результаты работы могут быть использованы при прогнозировании темпов регионального развития в России в посткризисный период, а также при реализации региональной экономической политики в период кризиса в целях максимизации экономического роста регионов после кризиса.Библиографические ссылки
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