Assessment of the Impact of Local Budgets on Regional Human Capital: Historical and Contemporary Aspects

Abstract

Considering the need for sustainable human capital development in Russia, as well as interdisciplinary research challenges, the present study examines historical and contemporary aspects of the impact of the budget on regional human capital. For this purpose, budgetary mechanisms implemented in the period from 1969 to 2020 were retrospectively analysed. Based on archival materials and data from statistical collections of the Soviet period, the dynamics and structure of budget revenues and expenditures in the 1970s were compared with those in the period from 2000 to 2017. A quantitative assessment was performed to test a hypothesis about a relationship between the volume of social budget expenditures and increase in the return on human capital in the form of tax revenues to the budget. The study employed methods of comparative, structural, correlation and econometric analysis and statistical grouping. Constructed econometric models demonstrated the nature and degree of influence of various social expenditures on the resulting indicator of human capital development. Then, comparative analysis was conducted to interpret the econometric modelling results and data on the state of local budgets in the Soviet and post-Soviet period. Taking into account the established relationship between social expenditures and the indicator of human capital development, public authorities can most efficiently allocate budget funds, ensuring the maximum socio-economic effect from their investment. The research findings can be used for creating socio-economic development strategies of particular regions, as well as for comparing their social development in the historical and geographical context. In this regard, future studies can systematically assess the impact of local budgets of the largest Russian regions on the resulting indicators of human capital.