Влияние миграционной активности на развитие жилищного строительства в регионах России
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2025-4-10Ключевые слова:
миграционная активность, жилищное строительство, жилье, факторы развития рынка жилой недвижимости, нелинейное влияние, эконометрическое моделирование, динамическая пороговая модельАннотация
Миграционные процессы в современной России оказывают значительное влияние на социально-экономическое развитие регионов, формируя новые вызовы и возможности для жилищного строительства. Авторами поставлены два исследовательских вопроса: как интенсивность миграции стимулирует развитие жилищного строительства в российских регионах и имеется ли разница данного влияния в регионах, богатых ресурсами, и несырьевых регионах? Для анализа использованы панельные данные с 2005 по 2021 г. по 83 субъектам Российской Федерации. Исследование проводилось на основе данных Федеральной службы государственной статистики, Центрального банка России и Агентства по ипотечному жилищному кредитованию. Для исследования авторами выбрана динамическая пороговая модель Кремера и др. (Kremer et al., 2013), являющаяся усовершенствованной версией модели Хансена (Hansen, 1999), Канера и Хансена (Caner & Hansen, 2004). Эта модель изначально построена для учета потенциальных нелинейностей, эндогенности и возможной смещенности оценок, связанной с индивидуальной гетерогенностью. Полученные результаты свидетельствуют о наличии нелинейного влияния миграции на развитие жилищного строительства в российских регионах, при этом в регионах несырьевых и регионах, богатыми ресурсами, это влияние носит разный характер. В первых наблюдается повторение закономерностей полной выборки регионов как во влиянии миграции до и после «переломной точки», так и по всем контрольным переменным. Выявлено статистически значимое положительное влияние таких переменных как уровень занятости населения в трудоспособном возрасте, индекс производства прочих неметаллических минеральных продуктов и цена недвижимости. В богатых ресурсами регионах уровень миграции не оказывает существенного влияния на объемы ввода жилья. Выявлено статистически значимое отрицательное влияние таких переменных как объемы ипотечного кредитования и величина денежных доходов населения. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы при формировании и реализации государственных стратегий и национальных проектов в области жилищной и региональной политики.
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