Estimation and Forecast of Regional Competitiveness Level
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/2016-4-6Ключевые слова:
integral index of competitiveness, time series forecasting, prediction of bounded variables, logistic regression, OLS, multifactor linear regressionАннотация
The paper is devoted to the development of methods for point and interval forecasting of the integral index of regional competitiveness. We stick to one of the most commonly used approaches to assessing the level of competitiveness based on its advantages over the others. As a result of this approach, the integral competitiveness index appears to be bounded, i.e. has a lower and upper limit. Due to this particular feature, it is proposed to carry out the forecasting of competitiveness index using multivariate logistic regression. The parameters of such model are determined using OLS through an inverse logarithmic transformation of the dependent variable. To calculate interval forecasts for the model, we proposed a new probability distribution for the errors of the nonlinear regression equation in the class of logistic curves. According to the proposed method, we calculated and forecasted the regional competitiveness level for the Russian Federation until 2020. The analysis of the data revealed some features of the regions distribution in terms of competitiveness level and indicated regional development trends. The paper has been prepared within the research project №1675: "Methodological and analytical tools for solving problems of spatial development of Russian economy under conditions of modern reforms" in terms of the basic part of the state order in the field of scientific activity of Russian Ministry of Education.Библиографические ссылки
Kuznetsova, N. V., Vorobeva, N. A. & Koroleva, A. V. (2015). Evaluation of the competitive potential of the economic development of the country: theoretical aspects and Russian practice. Asian Social Science, 11(14), 149-160.
Benzaquen, J., del Caprio, L. A., Zegarra, L. A. & Valdivia, C. A. (2011). A competitiveness of a region of a country. Cepal Review, 102, 67-84.
Komarova, V. N., Zjablova, O. V. & Denmukhametov, R. R. (2014). An infrastructure factor in regional competitiveness. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(18), 355-360.
Martin, R. (2005). Thinking about Regional Competitiveness: Critical Issue. Retrieved from: http://www.intelligen-ceeastmidlands.org.uk/uploads/documents/89137/RonMartinpaper1.pdf. (date of access: July 13, 2016).
Rubtzov, V. A., Rozhk, M. V., Gabdrakhmanov, N. K., Pratchenko, O. V. & Trofimov, A. M. (2015). Economic-geographical aspects of competitiveness and positioning of countries and regions. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 6(3), 741-745.
Porter, M. E. (2003). The Economic Performance of Regions. Regional Studies, 37(6/7), 549-578.
Voynarenko, M. P. & Bohatchyk, L. A. (2014). Applying cluster tools to develop subregional competitiveness strategy of region's economy. Actual Problems of Economics, 158(8), 171-182.
Safiullin, M. R., Safiullin, N. Z., Saipullaev, U. A. & Safiullin, L. N. (2013). Estimation of competitiveness of Russian regions by economic activity. Middle East Journal of Scientific Research, 16(10), 1413-1418.
Boschma, R. A. (2004). Competitiveness of regions from an evolutionary perspective. Regional Studies, 38(9), 1001-1014.
Kovalska, L. L. (2013). Methodical approaches to analysis and estimation of region's competitiveness. Actual Problems of Economics, 141(3), 109-124.
Turginbayeva, A. N. & Abildaev, S. T. (2013). Quantitative assessment of regional economy competitiveness (Republic of Kazakhstan case study). Actual Problems of Economics, 146(8), 477-485.
Nevima, J. & Melecky, L. (2011). Regional Competitiveness Evaluation of Visegrad Four Countries through Econometric Panel Data Model. Liberec Economic Forum, 10(1), 348-361.
Zubakin, V. A., Kosorukov, O. A. & Moiseev, N. A. (2015). Improvement of regression forecasting models. Modern Applied Science. Canada, 9(6), 344-353. DOI: 10.5539/mas.v9n6p344. (date of access: September 25, 2016).
Stanickova, M. & Polednikova, E. (2011). e EU Cohesion and Competitiveness in Theory and Practice. Mezinarodnt Batova konference pro doktorandy a mladé védecképracovntky, 7(1), 1-28.
Gagarina, G. Y., & Chainikova, L. N. (2014). Competitiveness of Russia and its regions: organizational aspect of management // Bulletin of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, № 8, 117-129.
Savic, N. (2012). Comparative analysis based on new competitiveness index. Panoeconomicus, 59(1), 105-115.
Shorokhov, V. P. & Kolkin, D. N. (2007). Assessing the competitive power of a region. Studies of Russian Economic Development, 18(1), 62-67.
Загрузки
Опубликован
Как цитировать
Выпуск
Раздел
Лицензия
Copyright (c) 2016 G.Y. Gagarina, N.A. Moiseev, A.V. Ryzhakova, G.V. Ryzhakov
Это произведение доступно по лицензии Creative Commons «Attribution» («Атрибуция») 4.0 Всемирная.
