Estimating the Impact of International Sanctions on Migration Flows Using Dynamic Panel Regression Method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2025-2-12Keywords:
international sanctions, economic sanctions, migration, panel regression, dynamic panel, system GMMAbstract
The study estimates the impact of different types of international sanctions on migration flows. We use data on 1325 cases of international sanctions imposed against 168 countries for the period of 1950 to 2021. Next, the U.S. sanctions are taken as a representative sample out of all cases, reflecting 87 % of cases of sanctions imposed by the OECD over the past 30 years. Using dynamic panel regression, we estimate the effect of different types of sanctions (trade sanctions, financial sanctions, travel sanctions, and other sanctions) on migration flows in sanctioned states. To our knowledge, this is the first study on sanctions impact of migration that differentiates sanctions by type. According to the results, only financial sanctions lead to a significant reduction in net migration for sanctioned states. The effect of the U.S. financial sanctions on net migration is estimated at – 5.22 people per thousand people of total population. The effect is explained by the negative impact of sanctions on the standard of living and the degree of integration of the national financial system into the global financial markets. In the case of restrictions on trade flows and travel, the absence of a negative effect from US sanctions indicates the presence of closer trade and migration ties with third countries compared to the US. The results of the study reveal the importance of factors such as trade and financial sanctions in construction of models involving migration flows. The estimates indicate potential for influx of labor migrants to Russia and the relevance of developing measures to attract them.
References
Afesorgbor, S. K. (2021). Sanctioned to starve? The impact of economic sanctions on food security in targeted states. In P.A.G. van Bergeijk (Ed.), Research Handbook on Economic Sanctions (pp. 438-466). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781839102721.00032
Andreyev, M. Y., & Polbin, A. V. (2023). Macroeconomic effects of the expected future decline in oil revenues for the Russian economy under capital control. Voprosy ekonomiki, (4), 5–28. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042–8736-2023-4-5-28 (In Russ.)
Beine, M., Docquier, F., & Rapoport, H. (2008). Brain drain and human capital formation in developing countries: winners and losers. The Economic Journal, 118(528), 631–652. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468–0297.2008.02135.x
Biglaiser, G., & Lektzian, D. (2011). The effect of sanctions on US foreign direct investment. International Organization, 65(3), 531–551. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818311000117
Borjas, G. J. (1987). Self-selection and the earnings of immigrants (No. w2248). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2248
Borodin, K. G. (2016). The impact of the embargo and sanctions on the agri-food markets in Russia: Analysis of consequences. Voprosy ekonomiki, (4), 124–143. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042–8736-2016-4-124-143 (In Russ.)
Borodin, K. G. (2018). Assessing the impact of food embargoes and economic sanctions on the commodity markets (the example of meat markets). Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody [Economics and mathematical methods], 54(4), 41–59. https://doi.org/10.31857/S042473880003319-9 (In Russ.)
Börsch-Supan, A. (1991). Aging in Germany and the United States: international comparisons. Economic Policy, 6(12), 103–140. https://doi.org/10.2307/1344450
Boulanger, P., Dudu, H., Ferrari, E., & Philippidis, G. (2016). Russian roulette at the trade table: A specific factors CGE analysis of an agri-food import ban. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 67(2), 272–291. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477–9552.12156
Burda, M. C. (1995). Migration and the option value of waiting. Economic & Social Review, 27(1), 1–19. http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64775 (Date of access:)
Burmina, S. D., Nesterova, K. V., & Polbin, A. V. (2022). Estimating the effect of taxing CO2 emissions on Russian oil industry). Vestnik mezhdunarodnykh organizatsii: obrazovanie, nauka, novaya ekonomika [International Organizations Research Journal], 17(3), 131–154. https://doi.org/10.17323/1996–7845-2022-03-05 (In Russ.)
Chen, Y. E., Fu, Q., Zhao, X., Yuan, X., & Chang, C. P. (2019). International sanctions’ impact on energy efficiency in target states. Economic Modelling, 82, 21–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.07.022
Cuadros, A., Martín-Montaner, J., & Paniagua, J. (2019). Migration and FDI: The role of job skills. International Review of Economics & Finance, 59, 318–332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2018.09.007
Docquier, F., Kone, Z. L., Mattoo, A., & Ozden, C. (2019). Labor market effects of demographic shifts and migration in OECD countries. European economic review, 113, 297–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.11.007
Doxey, M. (1981). Oil and food as international sanctions. International Journal, 36(2), 311–334. https://doi.org/10.1177/002070208103600204
Edo, A. (2019). The impact of immigration on the labor market. Journal of Economic Surveys, 33(3) 922–948. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12300
Felbermayr, G., Kirilakha, A., Syropoulos, C., Yalcin, E., & Yotov, Y. V. (2020). The global sanctions data base. European Economic Review, 129, 103561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103561
Fidrmuc, J. (2004). Migration and regional adjustment to asymmetric shocks in transition economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 32(2), 230–247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2004.02.011
Fischhendler, I., Herman, L., & Maoz, N. (2017). The political economy of energy sanctions: insights from a global outlook 1938–2017. Energy Research & Social Science, 34, 62–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.05.008
Gharibnavaz, M. R., & Waschik, R. (2018). A computable general equilibrium model of international sanctions in Iran. The world economy, 41(1), 287–307. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12528
Gurvich, E., & Prilepskiy, I. (2016). The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy. Voprosy ekonomiki, (1), 5–35. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042–8736-2016-1-5-35 (In Russ.)
Ha, L. T., Dung, H. P., Chuong, P. H., Thanh, T. T., & Huong, T. T. L. (2021). Global economic sanctions, global bank linkages and information asymmetry: An evidence from cross-country data. Global Economy Journal, 21(03), 2150011. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2194565921500111
Han, K. J. (2013). Saving public pensions: Labor migration effects on pension systems in European countries. The Social Science Journal, 50(2), 152–161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2012.12.001
Hejazi, J., & Emamgholipour, S. (2022). The effects of the re-imposition of US sanctions on food security in Iran. International Journal of Health Policy and Management, 11(5), 651–657. https://doi.og/10.34172/ijhpm.2020.207
Hufbauer, G. C., Schott, J. J., Elliott, K. A., & Oegg, B. (2007). Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. Washington DC: Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Knobel, A. Y., Bagdasaryan, K. M., Loschenkova, A. N., & Proka, K. A. (2019). Sanktsii: vser’ez i nadolgo [Sanctions: Serious and for long]. Moscow: Publisher “DELO” RANEPA, Scientific Report Series: Economics. (In Russ.)
Knobel, A. Yu., Proka, K. A., & Bagdasaryan, K. M. (2019). The Theory and Practice of International Economic Sanctions. Zhurnal novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii [Journal of the New Economic Association], (3(43)), 152–162. https://doi.org/10.31737/2221–2264-2019-43-3-7 (In Russ.)
Kwok, V., & Leland, H. (1982). An economic model of the brain drain. The American Economic Review, 72, 91–100. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1808577 (Date of access:)
Le, T. H., & Bach, N. T. (2011). Global sanctions, foreign direct investment, and global linkages: evidence from global data. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 31(7), 967–994. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2022.2047218
Mahlstein, K., McDaniel, C., Schropp, S., & Tsigas, M. (2022). Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: an allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 45(11), 3344–3383. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311
Majidi, A., Nedjat, S., Mohammadi, A., Jamshidi, E., & Majdzadeh, R. (2014). Impact of sanctions Iranian airlines: How people in Iran feel about air travel safety? International journal of disaster risk reduction, 10, 67–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.04.005
Mirkina, I. (2018). FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short-and long-run effects. European Journal of Political Economy, 54, 198–225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.05.008
Nesterova, K. V. (2021). Estimating the Impact of Skill-Differentiated Migration on Long-Term Economic Growth in a Global CGE-OLG Model. Ekonomicheskaya politika [Economic Policy], 16(5), 8–39. https://doi.org/10.18288/1994–5124-2021-5-8-39 (In Russ.)
Prilepskiy, I. V. (2019). Financial Sanctions: Impact on Capital flows and GDP Growth in Russia. Zhurnal novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii [Journal of the New Economic Association], (3(43)), 163–172. https://doi.org/10.31737/2221–2264-2019-43-3-8 (In Russ.)
Shapovalova, D., Galimullin, E., & Grushevenko, E. (2020). Russian Arctic offshore petroleum governance: The effects of western sanctions and outlook for northern development. Energy Policy, 146, 111753. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111753
Stark, O., Helmenstein, C., & Prskawetz, A. (1997). A brain gain with a brain drain. Economics letters, 55(2), 227–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165–1765(97)00085-2
Todaro, M. P. (1969). A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries. The American economic review, 59(1), 138–148.
van Bergeijk, P. A., & Dizaji, S. F. (2022). Energy sanctions and Russia’s democracy–autocracy: a dynamic VAR analysis (No. 703).
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Нестерова Кристина Владимировна
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
