2411-14062411-140610.17059/ekon.reg.2025-2-12Estimating the Impact of International Sanctions on Migration Flows Using Dynamic Panel Regression MethodОценка влияния международных санкций на миграционные потоки с применением метода динамической панельной регрессииhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5560-6611Nesterova Kristina V. НестероваКристина Владимировна nesterovakv@ranepa.ruRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации212424434Copyright © 2025 2025 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/890https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/890/431

The study estimates the impact of different types of international sanctions on migration flows. We use data on 1325 cases of international sanctions imposed against 168 countries for the period of 1950 to 2021. Next, the U.S. sanctions are taken as a representative sample out of all cases, reflecting 87 % of cases of sanctions imposed by the OECD over the past 30 years. Using dynamic panel regression, we estimate the effect of different types of sanctions (trade sanctions, financial sanctions, travel sanctions, and other sanctions) on migration flows in sanctioned states. To our knowledge, this is the first study on sanctions impact of migration that differentiates sanctions by type. According to the results, only financial sanctions lead to a significant reduction in net migration for sanctioned states. The effect of the U.S. financial sanctions on net migration is estimated at – 5.22 people per thousand people of total population. The effect is explained by the negative impact of sanctions on the standard of living and the degree of integration of the national financial system into the global financial markets. In the case of restrictions on trade flows and travel, the absence of a negative effect from US sanctions indicates the presence of closer trade and migration ties with third countries compared to the US. The results of the study reveal the importance of factors such as trade and financial sanctions in construction of models involving migration flows. The estimates indicate potential for influx of labor migrants to Russia and the relevance of developing measures to attract them.

В статье оценивается влияние различных типов международных санкций на миграционные потоки. Для расчетов использованы данные по 1 325 кейсам международных санкций, введенных против 168 стран за 1950–2021 гг. Далее в качестве репрезентативной выборки из всех кейсов выделены санкции США, отражающие 87 % кейсов санкций, введенных ОЭСР за последние 30 лет. С помощью динамической панельной регрессии оценивается эффект различных типов санкций (торговых санкций, финансовых санкций, санкций на путешествия и других санкций) на миграционные потоки в странах, на которые накладываются санкции. Согласно выполненным расчетам, среди всех типов санкций только финансовые приводит к значимому сокращению чистой миграции для подсанкционных государств. Эффект влияния финансовых санкций США на чистую миграцию оценивается на уровне 5,22 чел. на тыс. населения. Он объясняется отрицательным влиянием санкций на уровень жизни и степень интегрированности национальной финансовой системы в глобальную. В случае ограничений на торговые потоки и на путешествия отсутствие отрицательного эффекта от американских санкций указывает на наличие более тесных торговых и миграционных связей с третьими странами по сравнению с США. Результаты проведенного исследования выявляют значение таких факторов, как торговые и финансовые санкции в разработке математических моделей, учитывающих миграционные потоки. Полученные оценки указывают на значительный потенциал роста притока трудовых мигрантов в РФ и на актуальность разработки мер по их привлечению.

international sanctionseconomic sanctionsmigrationpanel regressiondynamic panelsystem GMMмеждународные санкцииэкономические санкциимиграцияпанельная регрессиядинамическая панельобобщенный метод моментов

This article was prepared under the state research assignment carried out by RANEPA.

Статья подготовлена в рамках выполнения научно-исследовательской работы государственного задания РАНХиГС.

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