Uncovering New Economy Potential of Russian Regions on the Basis of the Last 20 Years Dynamics’ Analysis

Abstract

Recent global events have accelerated new technologies implementation worldwide. This process can likely lead to a future increase in regional disparities, especially in large developing countries such as Russia. Resource-based growth, which prevailed in the last 20 years in Russia, could slow down technological change in most regions. We aimed to assess regional potential for new economy formation based on its previous dynamics in 2000–2020. For that purpose, we developed a complex index that evaluates regional ability to create, use and disseminate new knowledge and technologies. There were long-term upward trends of most of the indicators in Russian regions due to intensive interregional alignment policy and a rapid spread of information and communication technologies. Economic growth, according to the Granger test results, contributed to the new economy formation. However, many research and development (R&D) indicators did not achieve higher values in comparison with 2000, when the oil prices started to grow. The growth rates in recent years have been low, and the share of R&D employees and R&D expenditures as well as entrepreneurial activity have declined especially in 2020. A significant but decreasing divide remains between leading and lagging regions. In accordance with the identified types of regions, it is necessary to pursue a diversified regional policy. Our results can be used to justify smart specialisation principles in Russia. Indirectly the study measures the resilience, or adaptability of regions to crises.