Development of the Methodology for the Economic Evaluation of Managerial Decisions as a Factor of Economic Security Increase
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/2016-3-27Keywords:
economic security, economic evaluation in the conditions of uncertainty, reflexive approach and entropy accounting in the assessment of managerial decisions, new industrialization, convergent technologies, methodology, real optionsAbstract
In the article, it is noted that the emergence of the phenomenon of interdependence between security and development - so-called security-development nexus, becomes determining during the development of strategic documents at all hierarchical levels. It gives relevance to the search of the methodological decisions allowing to consider the possible threats to economic security at the strategic level, and the pragmatical actions which are not contradicting a strategic vector of economic entities development - at the tactical level. Instability factors which threat the economic security are revealed. A rationale for the development of the new model of national economy development, whose central element is new industrialization, is substantiated. The most important trends of the development of world economy influencing the strategic vector of the increase of the Russian economic security are considered. It is discovered that in the conditions of new industrialization, the intellectual core of the high-technology sector of the economy is formed by convergent technologies (NBICS technology). A methodological approach to the economic evaluation of management decisions in the conditions of uncertainty is offered. The methodological principles, which have to be accounted in the case of the development of the modern methodology for the economic evaluation of economic decisions, are allocated. Among them, there are the development of the preferred reality or so-called «vision of the future», the priority of network decisions as the basis for new markets development; the mass customization and individualization of requirements, basic changes of the profile of competences which provides the competitiveness in the labour market, use of the ideology of the inclusive development and reformative investment creating general values. The offered methodology is based on an optimum combination of the traditional methods of the economic evaluation of managerial decisions with the method of real option, reflexive estimates taking into account entropy as a measure of uncertainty. The offered methodological approach was tested for the development of mining and metallurgy of the Urals.References
Spear, J. & Williams, P. (2010). Security and development in Global Politics: A Critical Comparison. Wash, DC: George-town University Press, 352.
Kokoshin, A. & Bartenev, V. (2015). Problemy vzaimozavisimosti bezopasnosti i razvitiya v strategicheskom planirovanii v Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Ot tselepolaganiya k prognozirovaniyu [Problems of interdependence of security and development in the strategic planning in the Russian Federation. From a goal-setting to forecasting]. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Problems of forecasting], 6, 6–17.
Kuklin, A. A., Bystray, G. P., Okhotnikov, S. A. & Vasilyeva, E. V. (2015). Ekonomicheskaya tomografiya: vozmozhnost predvidet i reagirovat na sotsialno-ekonomicheskie krizisy [Economic tomography: an opportunity to expect and react to the socio-economic crises]. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of region], 4(44), 40–54.
Martin, G. P. & Shumani, Kh. (2001). Zapadnya globalizatsii: ataka na protsvetanie i demokratiyu: per s nem [West globalization: attack to prosperity and democracy]. Moscow: Alpina Publ., 335.
Fridman, D. (2010). Sleduyushchie 100 let. Prognoz sobytiy XXI veka [Next 100 years. Forecast of events of the 21st century]. Moscow: Eksmo Publ., 336.
Hiatt, S. Igry ekonomicheskikh ubiyts [Games of economic murderers]. 2d revised ed. Moscow: Pretekst Publ., 447.
Yakovenko, D. (2016). Izvestnyy bankir i selskiy vrach [Famous banker and rural doctor]. Ekspert [Expert], 9 (February 26 — March 6), 13–17.
Kamenetskiy, M. I. & Yaskova, N. Yu. (2015). Administrativnyy resurs kak faktor povysheniya effektivnosti sistemy gosudarstvennogo upravleniya [Administrative resource as a factor of the increase of the public administration system effectiveness]. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Problems of forecasting], 2, 33–42.
Peregudov, S. P. (2003). Korporatsii, obshchestvo, gosudarstvo. Evolyutsiya otnosheniy [Corporations, society, state. Evolution of the relations]. Moscow: Nauka Publ., 352.
Kichik, K. V. (2012). Gosudarstvennyy (munitsipalnyy) zakaz Rossii. Pravovyye problemy formirovaniya, razmeshcheniya i ispolneniya [State (municipal) order of Russia. Legal problems of forming, placement and implementation]. Moscow: Yustitsinform Publ.
Mikulskiy, K. (2016). Sistemnyye riski rossiyskogo obshchestva [Systemic risks of the Russian society]. Obshchestvo i ekonomika [Society and economy], 1, 4–7.
Gubanov, S. (2012). Derzhavnyy proryv. Neoindustrializatsiya Rossii i vertikalnaya integratsiya [Majestic break. Neoindustrialization of Russia and vertical integration]. Moscow: Knizhnyy Mir Publ., 224. (Sverkhderzhava).
Amitai Etzioni Reindustrialization Of America. (1983). Review of Policy Research, 5, 677–694. Retrieved from: http://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/revpol/v2y1983i4p677–694.html (date of access: 14.08.2015).
Bukhvalov, N. Yu. (2016). Inklyuzivnoye razvitie v ramkakh sovremennoy tekhniko-ekonomicheskoy paradigmy [Inclusive development within a modern technical and economic paradigm]. Aktualnyye problemy razvitiya Rossii i ee regionov. Mat-ly II vseros. nauch.-prakt. Konf [Current problems of development of Russia and its regions. Proceedings of 2d All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference], 1. Kurgan: Dammi Publ., 328.
Romanova, O. A. & Sirotin, D. V. (2015). New Technological Shape of Basic Branches of RF Industrial Regions. Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast, 5(41), 27–44.
Bendikov, M. A. & Frolov, I. E. (2007). Vysokotekhnologichnyy sektor promyshlennosti Rossii. Sostoyanie, tendentsii, mekhanizmy innovatsionnogo razvitiya [High-technology sector of the industry of Russia. Condition, tendencies, mechanisms of innovative development]. Moscow: Nauka Publ.
Lepskiy, V. E. (2010). Refleksivno-aktivnyye sredy innovatsionnogo razvitiya [Reflexive and active environments of innovative development]. Moscow: Kogito-Tsentr Publ., 255.
Denisov, A. & Denisova, E. (2016). O novom obraze budushchego [About a new image of the future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii [Economic strategy], 1, 118–132.
Deighton-Smith, R. & Jacobs, S. (1997). RIA: best practices in OECD countries/ OECD. Retrieved from: http://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatory-policy/35258828.pdf (date of access: 13.04.2016).
Turgel, I. D. & Veybert, S. I. (2015). Institut otsenki reguliruyushchego vozdeystviya v stranakh SNG. Kompleksnyy analiz [Institute of the assessment of the regulating influence in the CIS countries. Complex analysis]. Ekaterinburg: Uralskiy institut upravleniya RANKh i GS pri Prezidente RF Publ., 92.
Staschen, S., Dermish, A. & Gidvani, L. (2012). Regulatory Impact Assessment Methodology: Towards Evidence Based Policy. Making in Financial Inclusion. Bankable Frontier Associates. Retrieved from: http://bankablefrontier.com/wp-content/uploads/documents/Regulatory-Impact-Assessment_BFA-Concept-Note.pdf (ddate of access: 13.04.2016).
Romanova, O. A., Selivanov, E. N. & Korovin, G. B. (2014). Formirovanie novogo tekhnologicheskogo oblika metallurgicheskogo kompleksa regiona [Development of new technological shape of a metallurgical complex of the region]. Ekaterinburg: UrO RAN Publ., 234.
Bernardo, A. E. & Chowdhry, B. (2002). Resources, real options, and corporate strategy. Journal of Financial Economics, 63(2), 211–234.
Black, F. & Scholes, M. (1973). The pricing the options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 3. Retrieved from: http://www.jstor.org, (date of access: 12.10.2015).
Monkhouse, P.H.L. (1999). Roadblocks, sleeping policemen and real options. 3rd Annual real options conference. Retrieved from: http://www.realoptions.org (date of access: 10.08.2011).
Davis, A. G. & Newman, A. M. Modern strategic mine planning. CRC mining conference paper. Retrieved from: http://www.inside.mines.edu (date of access: 10.09.2011).
Romanova, O. A., Bryantseva, O. S. & Pozdnyakova, E. A. (2013). Resursnyy potentsial reindustrializatsii staropromyshlennogo regiona [Resource potential of reindustrialization of the old industrial region]. Ekaterinburg: Institut ekonomiki UrO RAN Publ., 251.
Romanova, O. A. & Estekhina, I. V. (2014). Strategii razvitiya integrirovannoy struktury na osnove analiza portfelya realnykh optsionov [Strategy of the integrated structure development on the basis of portfolio analysis of real options]. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoy teorii [Journal of the economic theory], 3, 171–180.
Estekhina, I. V. (2015). Metodicheskiy instrumentariy ekonomicheskoy otsenki razvitiya integrirovannoy struktury: avtoref. … diss. kand. ekon. nauk [Methodological tools of an economic evaluation of development of the integrated structure: abstract of PhD thesis in Economic]. Ekaterinburg: Institut ekonomiki UrO RAN Publ., 26.
Romanova, O. A. & Makarov, E. V. (2015). Development trends and economic assessment of the integration processes on the metals market. New research into regional economy problems, 1, 164–173.
Kazak, A. Yu. & Slepukhina, Yu. E. (2014). Otsenka riska investitsionnykh proektov na finansovykh rynkakh na osnove instrumentov realnykh optsionov [Risk assessment of investment projects in the financial markets on the basis of tools of real options]. Ustoychivoye razvitie rossiyskikh regionov. Ot Tamozhennogo soyuza k Evraziyskomu. Mat-ly XI mezhdunarod. nauch.-prakt. konf. po problemam ekonomicheskogo razvitiya v sovremennom mire [The sustainable development of the Russian regions. From the Customs union to Euroasian. Proceedings of 11th International Scientific and Practical Conference on the issues of economic development in the modern world]. Ekaterinburg: UrFU Publ., 148–156.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2016 O.A. Romanova, V. Ye. Strovskiy
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
