The Impact of Migration Activity on Housing Construction Development in Russian Regions

Abstract

Migration processes in contemporary Russia significantly influence regional socio-economic development, creating both challenges and opportunities for housing construction. This study addresses two research questions: How does migration intensity stimulate housing construction in Russian regions, and does this effect differ between resource-rich and non-resource-rich regions? The analysis employs panel data for 83 regions from 2005 to 2021, drawing on statistics from the Federal State Statistics Service, the Central Bank of Russia, and the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending. The study applies the dynamic threshold model developed by Kremer et al. (2013), which extends the approaches of Hansen (1999) and Caner and Hansen (2004), allowing for nonlinear effects, endogeneity, and heterogeneity bias. The results reveal a nonlinear relationship between migration and housing construction in Russian regions, with notable differences between resource-rich and non-resource-rich regions. In non-resource-rich regions, the relationship between migration and housing construction remains consistent across the sample, both before and after the identified threshold, and across all control variables. Statistically significant positive effects were found for the employment rate of the working-age population, the production index of other non-metallic mineral products, and real estate prices. In resource-rich regions, migration does not have a significant effect on housing completion rates, while mortgage lending volumes and household income show statistically significant negative effects. These findings can inform the development of state strategies and national projects in housing and regional policy.