Assessment of the Impact of Types of Economic Activities on the Formation of the Employment Structure of the Arctic Regions

Abstract

The negative dynamics of demographic and migration processes in the Arctic regions necessitates identifying the types of economic activity that have a primary influence on the formation of the sectoral employment structure. The development of these activities will contribute to increased employment, which explains the relevance of this research topic. The study’s hypothesis is that the primary influence on the sectoral employment structure is exerted by the types of economic activity whose share of total employment is the highest (or close to it), growing at a faster rate primarily due to employment growth within the sector itself, and contributing the greatest (or close to it) to changes in the sectoral employment structure. Statistical methods were used to analyze structural shifts in the sectoral employment structure. A criteria framework has been proposed and an algorithm for assessing the degree of influence has been developed, including an analysis of the specific weight, an assessment of the mass of structural shifts and the contribution of economic activities to changes in the regional employment structure, a classification of economic activities by the degree of influence in accordance with the developed criteria and assessment results, identification of industries with a priority impact, and, on this basis, determination of industry priorities for increasing employment in the economies of the Arctic regions. As an example of testing the developed approach, a classification of economic activities in the Arctic regions by the degree of influence on the industry structure of employment has been carried out, and industries with a priority impact (corresponding to three assessment criteria) have been identified. The contribution of economic activities related to the first and second classification groups to changes in the employment structure takes values from 73.24 % (Chukotka Autonomous Okrug) to 51.86 % (NAO), the specific weight is from 50.00 % (in Krasnoyarsk Krai) to 73.00 % (in Murmansk Oblast) with an upward trend, which is consistent with the proposed hypothesis. Based on the developed methodological approach, it is possible to develop a set of measures to increase employment.