Prospects for the Development of Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Partnership Between Russia and China and Its Impact on the Growth Potential of the BRICS Union

Abstract

Due to the shifting balance of power in global politics and the economy, the partnership between Russia and China plays a key role in shaping a new multipolar system. The expansion of cooperation between the two countries contributes not only to their socio-economic development and technological sovereignty but also to the strengthening of the BRICS union as an alternative centre of global governance. Effective cooperation between Russia and China in foreign policy plays an important role in global affairs. It supports the sustainable development of the international community, helps build a fair multipolar world order, and strengthens democratic principles in international relations. Member countries can benefit from the establishment of Technology Sharing Platforms (TSPs) and centres of technological expertise within the BRICS+ framework to accelerate both technological progress and economic growth. To evaluate the long-term impact of these developments, a mathematical model has been constructed to forecast GDP growth, incorporating the use of TSPs and investment resources in key BRICS economies. The model is built on a production function that includes demographic variables and total factor productivity, allowing for a comprehensive assessment of growth potential under different cooperation scenarios. When tested using historical data from 1960 to 2023, the model demonstrated a high level of accuracy (R² greater than 0.97), making it a reliable tool for analysing the economic dynamics of BRICS+ countries. Long-term forecasts for the new BRICS+ members, including Egypt, Iran, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia, indicate steady economic growth supported by stronger economic integration and technology transfer. The projected growth of the BRICS+ bloc, compared to the G7, indicates the potential for faster economic expansion over the next decade, which could strengthen the role of BRICS+ in shaping a fairer, multipolar world order. The model offers valuable insights for strategic planning and assessing the bloc’s economic potential in technological and investment cooperation.