Russian–Chinese Foreign Economic Relations: An Intersectoral Analysis

Abstract

The transformation of Russia’s foreign economic relations has turned China into its key trading partner. This article examines the ongoing reconfiguration of bilateral economic ties in the context of an evolving strategic partnership, the emergence of economic blocs, and the search for new areas of cooperation. The analysis applies system-based, intersectoral, and structural methods to explore foreign trade dynamics between the two countries. Using the 21-sector FIGARO model, the study traces the growing interdependence of their economies. Findings indicate that while political relations have reached a high level, this has not yet translated into a corresponding depth of economic integration. Russia’s economic involvement is most pronounced in intersectoral supplies of intermediate goods. Meanwhile, China’s economy remains largely self-sufficient, despite a modest increase in sectoral dependencies on Russia. The analysis of investment clusters, consumption, gross output, and direct cost coefficients shows that Russia and China are following a relatively fixed path in their bilateral economic relations, which continue to develop at a slow pace. Russia’s dependence on Chinese technologies and markets may increase if the current pattern of interaction remains unchanged. Sanctions further reinforce this trend, as Chinese businesses are cautious about engaging with Russia. Nonetheless, there are opportunities to strengthen production cooperation, driven by both external factors, such as the U.S.–China trade conflict, and bilateral initiatives, including joint projects in the Arctic and collaboration within the EAEU. Developing a balanced, strategically deep economic partnership with China could serve as a test case for strengthening cooperation with other friendly nations, enhancing the long-term resilience of the Russian economy. The article’s findings may be of particular interest to scholars and policymakers in foreign economic relations.