Sino-African Trade Relations: A Factor Analysis in the Context of the Transformation of the Global Trading System

Abstract

Since trade between China and African countries has become crucial for both sides and the global economy and is now experiencing significant changes, this study seeks to identify the main characteristics and trends of Sino-African trade and to predict how these relations will develop in the future. The hypothesis is that the ongoing transformation of the global trading system directly affects the volume and structure of Sino-African trade. The analysis employs comparative and statistical methods, including ARMA and ARIMA models, to assess future prospects. The study draws on international statistical databases and analytical materials from expert organizations. The authors examine the dynamics and structure of Sino-African trade between 2000 and 2023 and find that the transformation of the global trading system is influencing the scale, dynamics, and structure of Sino-African trade, while persistent geographical, commodity-related, structural, and financial imbalances remain. The findings suggest that, amid increasing global instability and rising competition for African resources, it is crucial for China to support Africa’s socio-economic development as a means of expanding exports to the “golden” continent. The study holds both academic and practical relevance for China, African countries, and Russia, offering insights into the mechanisms, patterns, and constraints of foreign trade cooperation with Africa in the evolving global trade landscape.