Key Hubs of the Polar Silk Road: Sustainable Arctic Routes

Abstract

Murmansk and Arkhangelsk ports have significant potential and are well-positioned to accommodate the growing traffic of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). It is projected that by 2030 the cargo turnover of both ports will increase, which underscores the importance of ensuring sustainable navigation along this route. Such sustainability depends heavily on accurate ice forecasting and the optimization of operational windows. Against this backdrop, this study examines the capacities of three key Polar Silk Road hubs — Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, and Qingdao, focusing on their roles in supporting NSR development. Accurate forecasting of ice conditions in the NSR water area is a critical prerequisite for the reliable planning of shipping operations. Although all three ports contribute to Polar Silk Road connectivity, they differ substantially in cargo volumes and structures, as well as in the types of vessels they service. Using 2022 annual reports from Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, and Qingdao, we analysed a set of comparable indicators, including cargo turnover, waste utilization, and emissions of harmful substances from vessels. To complement this, we also examined Chinese models for port infrastructure development and for integrating ice forecasting with navigation window optimization along the NSR. The comparative analysis reveals that rising port productivity, when accompanied by increased environmental protection expenditures, substantially reduces waste flows but does not necessarily result in lower harmful emissions. This finding points to differentiated strategic priorities: for Arkhangelsk, enhancing waste utilization capacity; for Qingdao, increasing environmental protection investment and achieving CO₂ emissions neutrality; and for Murmansk, accelerating the implementation of AI-driven solutions.