Diagnostics of Threats to Regional Fiscal Security

Abstract

Nowadays, the influence of negative factors on the fiscal system has been strengthening at both the country and regional levels. In particular, income differentiation and fiscal capacity are increasing, inflation rate exceeds the target, negative trends of growing household debt and enterprise unprofitability are observed. Such factors are not fully considered by existing diagnostic methodologies for analysing fiscal and economic security indicators and threats. Thus, in order to adjust stabilisation decisions and implement relevant fiscal policies, it is necessary to update these approaches, especially in regions. The paper examines key definitions of threats and risks to regional fiscal security and presents the author’s classification of threats according to the incidence. Based on the analysed approaches to threat assessment and a proposed diagnostic mechanism, the research developed a method for diagnosing threats to regional fiscal security by bringing the actual values of indicators to standardised points. In addition, to determine the danger level of threats, indicator values were distributed by security zones. The suggested methodology, which includes 12 indicators, was used to analyse the fiscal security of the Komi Republic. As a result, significant threats to the regional fiscal security were identified in the economic, budget, tax, investment, innovation, price, banking, corporate and social spheres. Baseline data were obtained from Federal State Statistics Service, Federal Customs Service of Russia, Federal Taxation Service of Russia and the Bank of Russia. The proposed methodology is an effective diagnostic tool for analysing threats to fiscal security on the basis of important regional indicators. Federal and local authorities can use this particular method for monitoring regional fiscal systems.