A Model for Assessing Regional Sustainable Development Based on the Index Method

Abstract

Assessment of development opportunities for socio-economic systems is particularly relevant in the context of constantly changing macroeconomic conditions. A retrospective analysis is an important step in assessing development opportunities at the regional level. Based on a presented model for assessing regional sustainable development, the article analyses statistical data of the regions included in the Central, Northwestern and Southern Federal Districts for the period 2005-2019. According to the concept of sustainable development, the indicators were divided into three subgroups: social, economic and environmental. The following results were obtained. Social indicators revealed positive dynamics in the number of regions developing sustainably until 2014; later, the number changed erratically every year, ranging from 21 to 38. Economic indicators demonstrated negative dynamics in the number of sustainable regions until 2014. In the period 2014-2019, an abrupt fluctuation from 13 to 32 units was observed. Environmental indicators show that, on average, half of the examined regions managed to develop sustainably. After determining the overall index, the rate of change of the index was identified. Then, a sustainable development matrix was constructed, where 1 means that the index value increased year-on-year or remained the same, and 0 means that the index value decreased year-on-year. The findings can be used for ranking regions by summing up values in the region’s row of the sustainability matrix. The study may also serve as a basis for identifying the relationship between various large-scale phenomena such as the economic crisis, pandemic, the development of digital currency markets and changes in regional sustainability indicators.