Forecast Parameters Disintegration and Coordination of The Socio-Economic Development and Fuel and Energy Balance of a Region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/2015-2-18Keywords:
regional economy, energy saving, energy efficiency, authenticity, stochasticity, trend, dynamics, information, forecast, fuel and energy balanceAbstract
At the present time, the document contents of strategic planning for subjects of the Russian Federation, their order of development and endorsement at the interregional and federal levels, requirements for content and coordination with other long-term and medium-term territorial programs are legislative authorized. In the article, the theoretical and methodical problems of specification and interrelation of forecast scenario versions of region socio-economic development with expected parameters of regional energy consumption on the basis of fuel and energy balance in the conditions of incomplete retrospective information are considered. Such situation is typical in the market conditions, and some restrictions on access to the statistical data can be removed. It reduces the application of the strict formal valuation methods and objectivity not only expected, but also current indicators. Methodical and practical relevance of coordination of the specified documents is caused by the relative isolation of their development, various specification level of expected scenarios, lack of necessary information. The authors use the estimation procedure of indicators of energy saving and energy efficiency based on structural comparison of real, current, and expected fuel and energy balances coordinated with the forecast of region socio-economic development and are interested in its development for the comparative analysis of regional energy consumption in the retrospective and expected periods. The calculations are carried out by the authors since 2007 within the state order of the Ministry of Energy and Housing and Utilities Infrastructure of the Sverdlovsk region. In the article, the methodical features of the author's approaches to the option development of fuel and energy balance considering official scenarios of the forecast of region socio-economic development, fault and incompleteness of statistical data, standard requirements for the forecasts quality are reflected.References
Kuklin, A. A., Myzin, A. L. & Denisova, O. A. (2011). Teoretiko-metodologicheskie aspekty energoinvestitsionnoy privlekatelnosti regiona [Theoretical methodological aspects of energy investment appeal of a region]. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoy teorii [Journal of economic theory], 3, 52-62.
World Energy Outlook 2011. (2011). © OECD/IEA, 243.
Anufriev, V. P., Galenovich, A. Yu., Kuligin, A. P. et al. (2012). Regionalnaya strategiya nizkouglerodistogo razvitiya Sverdlovskoy oblasti [Regional strategy of low-carbonaceous development of Sverdlovsk region]. Yekaterinburg: UrFU, 135.
Kuklin, A. A., Pykhov, P. A., Myzin, A. L. et al. (2008). Otraslevyye i regionalnyye problemy formirovaniya energeticheskoy bezopasnosti [Sectoral and regional problems of the energy security development]. Yekaterinburg: Institute of Economics, UB RAS, 382.
Makarov, A. A., Filippov, S. P. & Malakhov, V. (2013). Osnovy prostranstvennogo razvitiya elektroenergetiki [Bases of spatial development of power industry]. Fundamentalnyye problemy prostranstvennogo razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Mezhdistsiplinarnyy sintez [Fundamental problems of spatial development of the Russian Federation. Interdisciplinary synthesis]. Moscow, Media-Press, 664.
Veselov, F. V., Makarov, A. A. & Makarova, A. S. (2013). Metody i rezultaty otsenki effektivnosti uskorennoy modernizatsii elektroenergetiki Rossii [Methods and results of efficiency assessment of the rapid modernization of power industry of Russia]. Teploenergetika [Heat-and-power engineering], 1, 3-51.
Bashmakov, I. A. & Myshak, A. D. (2013). Vklad regionov v dinamiku pokazateley energoyeokosti VVP Rossii [Contribution of regions to dynamics of indicators of power consumption of GDP of Russia]. Energosberezhenie [Energy-saving], 8, 12-18.
Romanova, O. A., Ogloblin, A. A. & Dobrodey, V. V. et al. (2008). Teoretiko-metodologicheskie i informatsionnyye aspekty prognozirovaniya toplivno-energeticheskogo balansa regiona [Theoretical and methodological and information aspects of the region fuel and energy balance forecasting]. Yekaterinburg, Institute of Economics, UB RAS, 225.
Dobrodey, V. V. & Popov, V. Yu. (2011). Otsenka energoeffektivnosti regionalnoy ekonomiki: nauchnyy doklad [Assessment of energy efficiency of regional economy: scientific report]. Edited by Doctor of Engineering Science M.B. Petrov. Yekaterinburg: Institute of Economics, UB RAS, 69.
Danilov, N., Silin, V., Dobrodey, V. & Popov, V. (2014). Energy problems of the rational use of the economic potential of the region. First International Conference on Energy Production and Management in the 21st Century: The Quest for Sustainable Energy. WIT press Southampton, Boston, 419-425.
Bashmakov, A. I., Sinyak, Yu. V., Makarov, A. A. et al. (2014). Zatraty i vygody nizkouglerodnoy ekonomiki i transformatsii obshchestva v Rossii. Perspektivy do i posle 2050 g. [Expenses and benefits of low-carbon economy and transformation of society in Russia. Prospects up to 2050]. Moscow: CENEf, 178.
Bashmakov, I. A. & Myshak, A. D. (2012). Faktornyy analiz evolyutsii rossiyskoy energoeffektivnosti: metodologiya i rezultaty [Factorial analysis of evolution of the Russian energy efficiency: methodology and results]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Questions of economy], 10, 117-131.
Prognoz razvitiya energetiki mira i Rossii do 2040 goda [The development forecast of power engineering of the the world and Russia up to 2040]. Moscow: INBI RAS, Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, 173.
Yantovsky, A. A. (2005). Makroekonomicheskiy analiz i modelirovanie regionalnoy ekonomiki v sisteme mezhotraslevogo narodnokhozyaystvennogo prognozirovaniya: diss. … kand. ekon. nauk: 08.00.05 [The macroeconomic analysis and modeling of regional economy in system of interindustry economic forecasting: published summery of a PhD thesis]. Moscow, 168.
Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions. (2007). OECD/IEA. Paris, 321.
Petrov, M. B. (2014). Energeticheskaya politika i novaya industrializatsiya: o roli energeticheskoy politiki v razvitii strany i regionov [Power policy and new industrialization: on a role of power policy in development of the country and regions]. Energetika Tatarstana [Power industry of Tatarstan], 3-4, 3-7.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2015 Vladimir Vavilovich Dobrodey
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
