Forecast of the Demografic Development of Russia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/2015-2-25Keywords:
birth rate, public administration, demographic waves, probability function, modernized Hurst method, forecast, time of reliable predictionAbstract
In the article, the contemporary issues of the reproduction of the Russian population, their reasons, and state policy toward them are considered. Relevance of the task solution of assessment of the most expected birth rate dynamics of the Russian population in future in the conditions of low norms of the parenthood status taking into account the influence of government measures for the birth rate stimulation is proved. In order to achieve this objective, on the basis of the behavior probability distribution function of crude birth rate, the probabilistic assessment of the future birth rate dynamics of the Russian population was conducted. On the basis of the modernized Hirst method, two expected dynamics trajectories of crude birth rate were constructed: the first trajectory corresponds to the scenario at which the value of crude birth rate will be in the range of 8-10,5 born / 1000 people (probability - 0,182), including the negative external impact, the second trajectory will be in the range of 13-16,5 born / 1000 people (probability - 0,618), including the positive external impact. In spite of the fact that these scenarios are quite different, the dynamics trajectories of crude birth rate predicted according to them during the period of 2015-2041 that corresponds to the time of the reliable prediction are almost identical. The analysis of the received results enabled to conclude that the state population policy cannot affect the future dynamics of the birth rate due mainly to to the conjectural changes. These conclusions confirm the intellectual vested interest of the academic circles that government regulation of a demographic situation in Russia has to be aimed, first of all, at the health improvement and increase of the expected life interval of the population.References
Antonov, A. I. (2004). Prichiny i posledstviya depopulyatsii v Rossii [The reasons and consequences of depopulation in Russia]. Pochemu vymirayut russkie: posledniy shans: sb. st. [Why die out the Russians: last chance: collection of articles]. Edited by A.I. Antonovю Moscow: Eksmo, 35-51.
Antonova, A. I. (1980). Sotsiologiya rozhdayemosti [Birth rate sociology]. Moscow, Statistika [Statistics].
Bystray, G. P., Korshunov, L. A., Lykov, I. A., Nikulina, N. L. & Okhotnikov, S. A. (2010). Metody nelineynoy dinamiki v analize i prognozirovanii ekonomicheskikh sistem regionalnogo urovnya [Nonlinear dynamics methods in the analysis and forecast of the regional level economic systems]. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoy teorii [Journal of economic theory], 3, 103-114.
Federa, E. (1991). Fraktaly: per. s angl. [Fractals: trans. from English]. Moscow: Mir, 254.
Bystray, G. P., Vasilyeva, A. V. & Lykov, I. A. (2012). Prognozirovanie demograficheskogo razvitiya Rossii [Forecasting of the Russia demographic development]. Vestnik UrFU [UrFU Bulletin], 6, 61-72. Ekonomika i upravlenie [Economics and management].
Vasilyeva, E. V., Kuklin, A. A. & Leontyeva A. G. (2010). Sotsialnaya zashchita naseleniya, eyo rol v povyshenii kachestva zhizni v regionakh Rossii [Social protection of the population, its role in the life quality improvement in regions of Russia]. Uroven zhizni naseleniya Rossii [Living standard of the population in Russian regions], 9, 22-31.
Vasilyeva, Ye. V. (2013). Reyting subektov RF po urovnyu sotsialno-psikhologicheskogo potentsiala [Rating of territorial subjects of the Russian Federation on the level of social and psychological potentia]. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoy teorii [Journal of economic theory], 3, 131-141.
Kuklin, A. A. & Gurban, I. A. (2012). Regionalnyye osobennosti demograficheskoy sostavlyayushchey chelovecheskogo kapitala [Regional features of demographic component of the human capital]. Narodonaselenie [The population], 4(58), 035-050.
Gurban, I. A. (2012). Sostoyanie nauchno-issledovatelskogo kapitala subektov Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Condition of the research capital of subjects of the Russian Federation]. Vestnik Orenburgskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta [Orenburg State University Bulletin], 13(149), 89-96.
Denisova, O. A. & Pykhov, P. A. (2008). Otsenka sovremennogo i perspektivnogo sostoyaniya UrFO s pozitsiy energeticheskoy bezopasnosti [Current and perspective state value of Ural Federal District from perspective of energy security]. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of region], 4, 52-61.
Agarkov, G. A., Sudakova, A. E. & Naydyonov, A. S. (2013). Ekonomicheskie posledstviya vliyaniya tenevoy ekonomiki na sotsialno-ekonomicheskuyu sferu Uralskogo federalnogo okruga [Economic impact of shadow economy on the socio- economic sphere of Ural Federal District]. Regionalnaya ekonomika. Teoriya i praktika [Regional economy. Theory and practice], 42, 45-53.
Tatarkin, A. I. & Vasilyeva, A. V. (2015). Otsenka potrebnosti rossiyskogo rynka truda v inostrannoy rabochey sile [Estimate of requirements of the Russian labor market for foreign labor]. Natsionalnyye interesy. Prioritety i bezopasnost [National interests. Priorities and security], 2 (287), 10-21.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2015 V.P. Chichkanov, A.V. Vasilyeva, G.P. Bystray, S.A. Okhotnikov
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
