Transition to a New Technological Paradigm as a Determinant of the Population Welfare Growth in Russian Regions
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-1Abstract
Nowadays, intensive technological development and transition to a new (VI) technological paradigm are seen as determinants of the quality of economic and welfare growth. Thus, analysis of interregional differentiation of Russian constituent entities and assessment of the relationship between their socio-economic indicators and technological development became relevant. However, insufficient attention is paid to the influence of the regional technological development on the welfare of residents. In this regard, the present study aims to assess this influence in Russia, as well as to link the population welfare growth with the phases of Kondratieff waves and the stages of the technological paradigm. The research methodology includes: cluster analysis used to group regions according to a set of parameters characterising the welfare of their inhabitants; calculation of composite indicators that were applied to create a ranking of regions; estimation of correlation coefficients. An approach was developed to analyse the regional technological development based on a composite indicator that includes three indices: internal costs for research and development; the share of enterprises implementing technological innovations in the total number of surveyed organisations; the share of innovative goods, works, services in the total volume of shipped goods, works, services. The constituent entities of Russia were ranked according to the obtained composite indicator of technological development. Then, 20 leading and 20 lagging regions were identified, for which the correlation coefficients were calculated. The study concluded that an increase in the welfare is achieved at the growth stage of a new technological paradigm, while an increase in poverty and a decrease in incomes of the population can be observed at the maturity stage of the previous technological paradigms.
References
Akaev, A. A. & Sadovnichiy, V. A. (2016). A closed dynamic model to describe and calculate the Kondratiev long wave of economic development. Vestnik Rossiyskoy akademii nauk [Bulletin of the Russian academy of sciences], 86(10), 883- 896. (In Russ.)
Arkhipova, M. Yu. & Sirotin, V. P. (2020). Approaches to Studying the Quality and Standard of Living in Russia. Vestnik Rossiyskogo fonda fundamentalnykh issledovaniy. Gumanitarnye i obshchestvennye nauki [Russian foundation for basic research journal. Humanities and social sciences], 4(101), 34-44. DOI: 10.22204/2587-8956-2020-101-04-34-44 (In Russ.)
Aslaksen, E. W. (2021). Measures of Social Evolution: Macroeconomic Indicators of Social Stability. Springer Briefs in Sociology. Singapore Pte Ltd, 83. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1800-0
Averbukh, V. M. (2010). The sixth technological setup and perspectives of Russia (abstract). Vestnik Stavropolskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta [Bulletin of the Stavropol State University], 71, 159-166. (In Russ.)
Başçi, E., Başçi, S. & Gherby, T. (2021). Money Growth and Social Stability. Central European Review of Economics and Management, 5(4), 96-115. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.29015/cerem.931
Ciffolilli, A. & Muscio, A. (2018) Industry 4.0: national and regional comparative advantages in key enabling technologies. European Planning Studies, 26(12), 2323-2343. DOI: 10.1080/09654313.2018.1529145.
Freeman, C. (2011). Technology, inequality and economic growth. Innovation and Development, 1(1), 11-24. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/2157930x.2010.551062.
Freeman, C., Clark J. & Soete, L. (1982). Unemployment and technical innovation: A study of long waves in economic development. London: Frances Pinter, 214.
Glazyev, S. Yu. (2018). Discovery of regularities of changes of technological orders in the central economic and mathematics institute of the soviet academy of sciences. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody [Economics and Mathematical Methods], 54(3), 17-30. DOI: 10.31857/S042473880000655-9 (In Russ.)
Glazyev, S. Yu. (2020). On forming the ideology of transition to a new world economic order in Russia and the EAEU. Ekonomicheskie strategii [Economic strategies], 7(173), 46-61. DOI: 10.33917/es-7.173.2020.46-61 (In Russ.)
Granit, I. (2020). Digital Divide: Effects on Distribution of Wealth and Resources and Climate Change. Politics in the Digital Age, 3(1), 7-38. Retrieved from: https://ujpps.com/index.php/ujpps/article/view/79 (date of access: 07.09.2022).
Grinina, L. E., Korotaeva, A. V. & Bondarenko, V. M. (2017). Kondratev N. D.: krizisy i prognozy v svete teorii dlinnykh voln. Vzglyad iz sovremennosti [N.D. Kondratiev: crises and forecasts in the light of the theory of long waves. A look from the present]. Moscow: Moscow publishing house “Teacher”, 384. (In Russ.)
Ilyshev, A. M. & Shubat, O. M. (2010). Multidimential classification of data: methods, analysis of practice and perspectives of implementation. Voprosy statistiki, 10, 34-40. (In Russ.)
Kagermann, H. (2015). Change Through Digitization—Value Creation in the Age of Industry 4.0. In: H. Albach, Meffert, A. Pinkwart, R. Reichwald (Eds.), Management of Permanent Change (pp. 23-45). Springer Gabler, Wiesbaden. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-05014-6_2.
Kalyaev, I. A. (2019). Artificial intelligence: whither goest thou? Ekonomicheskie strategii [Economic strategies], 5(163), 6-15. DOI: 10.33917/es-5.163.2019.6-15 (In Russ.)
Kaneva, M. A. & Untura, G. A. (2021). Modeli otsenki vliyaniya ekonomiki znaniy na ekonomicheskiy rost i innovatsii regionov [Models for assessing the impact of the knowledge economy on economic growth and regional innovation]. Novosibirsk: IEOPP SB RAS, 256. (In Russ.)
Klepach, A. N. (2021). Economy: middle-term impediments and role of human capital in the answer on global and internal challenges of long-term development. Nauchnye trudy Volnogo ekonomicheskogo obshchestva [Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society], 227(1), 30-92. DOI: 10.38197/2072-2060-2021-231-5-63-92 (In Russ.)
Knell, M. (2010). Nanotechnology and the Sixth Technological Revolution. In: S. Cozzens, J. Wetmore (Eds.), Nanotechnology and the Challenges of Equity, Equality and Development. Yearbook of Nanotechnology in Society, vol 2 (pp. 127-143). Springer, Dordrecht. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9615-9_8.
Kondratiev, N. D. (1925). Major Cycles of the Conjuncture. Voprosy konyunktury [Conjuncture Issues], 1, 28–79. (In Russ.)
Kondratiev, N. D. (2002). Large Cycles of Conjuncture and the Theory of Foreseeing. Selected Works. Moscow: Economics, 767. (In Russ.)
Kurz, H. D., Schütz, M., Strohmaier, R. & Zilian, S. S. (2018). Riding a new wave of innovations. A long-term view at the current process of creative destruction. Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, 44(4), 545-583.
Lokosov, V. V. (1998). The stability of society and the system of limiting critical indicators of its development. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies], 4, 86-94. (In Russ.)
Lutsenko, S. I. (2021). Putting the economic indicators of society wellbeing on the agenda. Obshchestvo i ekonomika [Society and Economics], 8, 62-74. DOI: 10.31857/S020736760016140-3 (In Russ.)
Pereslegin, S. B. (2019). Technological order VI: the space of opportunities. Ekonomicheskie strategii [Economic strategies], 3(161), 24-33. (In Russ.)
Porfiriev, B. N., Shirov, A. A., Uzyakov, M. N., Gusev, M. S. & Shokin, I. N. (2020). The main directions of socio-economic development of Russia in 2020–2024 and for the period up to 2035. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Studies on Russian economic development], 3(180), 3-15. (In Russ.)
Sukharev, O. S. (2015). Regional economic policy: structural approach and tools (theoretical formulation). Ekonomika regiona [Economy of region], 2(42), 9-22. DOI: 10.17059/2015-2-1 (In Russ.)
Surinov, А. E. & Luppov, A. B. (2021). Influence of Regional Differences in the Cost of Living on National Income Inequality. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of region], 17(3), 814-827. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2021–3-7 (In Russ.)
Zemtsov, S. P. (2021). New technologies and regional development in the modern period. Zhurnal Novoy Ekonomicheskoy Assotsiatsii [Journal of the New Economic Association], 3(51), 196–207. DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2021-51-3-9 (In Russ.)
Zubarevich, N. V. & Safronov, S. G. (2019). People and money: incomes, consumption and financial behavior of the population of the russian regions in 2000-2017. Izvestiya Rossiyskoy akademii nauk. Seriya geograficheskaya, 5, 3-17. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587-5566201953-17 (In Russ.)
Zubarevich, N. V. (2021). Regions of Russia during a pandemic: socio-economic dynamics and budget revenues. Zhurnal Novoy Ekonomicheskoy Assotsiatsii [Journal of the New Economic Association], 3(51), 208–218. DOI: 10.31737/2221- 2264-2021-51-3-10 (In Russ.)
