Methodological Approach to Assessing the Scale of the Military-Industrial Complex in Russian Regions

Abstract

The military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation is currently expanding rapidly and remains a state priority. This study aims to assess its scale across Russian regions, identify its sectoral structure, and develop a methodology for estimating its volume. The research hypothesis suggests that the role of the military-industrial complex in Russia’s economy is often overestimated and that it, in fact, represents a relatively small share of the national economy. The sample includes all regions of Russia, excluding the so-called “new regions.” The novelty of the proposed methodology lies in the use of data on the volume of shipped products, which, unlike gross regional product (GRP) data, are published by Rosstat for specific sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry. Each sub-sector of the military industry was evaluated using a tailored approach: in some cases, Rosstat’s technical classifications were applied, while in others, information was drawn from interviews with enterprise and agency heads as reported in the media. The calculations also considered the contributions of scientific organizations and the public administration sector. All components of the military-industrial complex were then converted into a comparable indicator—GRP. The results show that the average share of the military-industrial complex in Russia’s economy amounts to 5.8 % (as of 2023), with regional variation ranging from 0 % to 18 %. The proposed methodology for estimating the share of the military-industrial complex in the economy can be applied by a wide range of analysts, including both government bodies and business structures. Its main advantage is the reliance on open-source data.