The Impact of Natural and Man-Made Emergencies on the Economic Development of Russian Regions

Abstract

In the context of the focus on technological sovereignty and the priority of sustainable development, the impact of emergencies on economic growth remains insufficiently understood. This study examines how natural and man-made emergencies influence economic development, measured by GDP and GRP. The main hypothesis assumes that emergencies have a positive effect on regional economic development. Econometric methods were applied to test this assumption.

The first hypothesis, addressing the relationship between Russia’s economic growth and the negative consequences of emergencies, was tested using a single-factor correlation–regression analysis between GDP growth rates and the growth rates of total material damage from emergencies (2014–2023). The analysis revealed a moderate negative correlation; however, the regression model showed no statistical significance according to Fisher’s F-test. Thus, the empirical evidence did not confirm findings from several international studies that suggest a direct positive link between emergencies and regional economic development. The second hypothesis tested whether a point-by-point comparison of pre-crisis GRP trajectories and actual post-emergency development (2000–2022) would yield more accurate estimates of the impact of emergencies on regional economies. The results were mixed: a positive effect was observed in the Republic of Khakassia and Krasnodar Krai, a negative one in Amur Oblast and the Jewish Autonomous Region, and a neutral effect in Kemerovo Oblast and Khabarovsk Krai. Overall, the findings indicate that the impact of emergencies on regional economic performance in Russia is nonlinear and context-dependent. The hypothesis of a systematic positive effect for the country as a whole, reported in some international studies, was not supported. The results may inform the development of regional economic strategies and future research on the economic consequences of emergencies.