https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/issue/feed Economy of Regions 2024-03-28T12:32:00+05:00 Evgeniya A. Balyakina journal@economyofregions.org Open Journal Systems <p><strong><em>Economy of Regions</em></strong> is an international peer-reviewed academic journal. The journal provides a platform for dialogue on socio-economic processes occurring at regional levels ranging from local areas to individual countries and groups of countries. <strong><em>Economy of Regions</em></strong> covers topics of regional development, regional economic and social policies, regional demographics, territorial management, urban and rural development, resource management and regional infrastructure.</p> <p><strong>Founded:</strong> 2005</p> <p><strong>Founders:</strong> Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS (<a href="https://uiec.ru/">https://uiec.ru/</a>), Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; Ural Federal University (<a href="https://urfu.ru/en/">https://urfu.ru/en/</a>), Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation</p> <p><strong>Publisher:</strong> Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS (<a href="https://uiec.ru/">https://uiec.ru/</a>), Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation</p> <p><strong>ISSN</strong> 2072-6414 (Print)</p> <p><strong>E-ISSN</strong> 2411-1406 (Online)</p> <p><strong>Frequency:</strong> Quarterly</p> <p><strong>Languages of Publication:</strong> Russian, English</p> <p><strong>Open Access Policy:</strong> Platinum Open Access</p> <p><strong>Publication Fee:</strong> no publication fees</p> <p><strong>Alternate title:</strong> Ekonomika Regiona</p> <p><strong>Previous title in English:</strong> Before the September, 2021, the journal issued as <strong><em>Economy of Region</em></strong></p> <p><span class="VIiyi" lang="en"><span class="JLqJ4b ChMk0b" data-language-for-alternatives="en" data-language-to-translate-into="ru" data-phrase-index="0" data-number-of-phrases="1"><strong>Indexing:</strong> Scopus, Web of Science (Emerging Sources Citation Index), RSCI, etc. (<a title="Indexing" href="https://economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/indexing">learn more</a>)</span></span></p> https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/635 Comparative Analysis of University Internationalisation Considering Changes in World Leaders 2023-08-21T09:57:13+05:00 Елена Васильевна Пономаренко elponomarenko@yandex.ru Elena D. Frolova frol-uved@yandex.ru Victoria S. Beliaeva v.s.belyaeva@urfu.ru <p>Qualified personnel plays an important role in the competition between countries for economic leadership that enables the transition to a multipolar world. In this context, the higher education sphere is changing; universities worldwide are increasingly striving to attract the best students to their country. The study aims to identify factors causing changes in the position of universities in world regions and develop recommendations for Russian universities to strengthen their positions in the global education market. The methodology relies on the concept of different historical cycles leading to changes in world leaders. The article offers a contemporary interpretation of higher education internationalisation as a multidimensional process instead of fragmentation. The first section explores the issue of changing the world leader; the second identifies transformations in higher education internationalisation in key world regions; the third assesses university internationalisation as a basis for new rankings and self-assessment. A hypothesis about the correlation between the trend of changing global leaders and the place of national universities in international rankings is confirmed. To assess the trend dynamics, the article proposes authors’ multidimensional indices of higher education and university internationalisation for world countries. It is revealed that China, aspiring to be a world leader, has expanded its share in the education market and increased import volumes by more than 1.5 times, sending its students to high-ranking universities, while the USA has weakened its position. Russian universities occupy middle positions in rankings despite the growth of the country’s share in the global education market. Recommendations offered to Russian universities and the option of their self-assessment can be used by strategic development professionals.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Елена Васильевна Пономаренко , Elena D. Frolova , Victoria S. Beliaeva https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/678 Assessing the Resource Provision: from the EAEU to the Greater Eurasian Space 2023-10-05T08:46:28+05:00 Elena L. Andreeva andreeva.el@uiec.ru Artem V. Ratner aratner@inbox.ru <p>Considering the transformation of global economic relations, Russia strives to strengthen cooperation within the Greater Eurasian space (GES) on the basis of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The study aims to develop an approach to assessing the resource provision of the GES development. The Balassa method and the analysis of documents were used to distinguish five institutional levels (beyond the EAEU) of the GES development: I — countries that have a free trade zone agreement with the EAEU; II — countries that have other agreements; III — cooperation is elaborated; IV — negotiations were conducted; V — countries interested in cooperation. According to 4 traditional production factors, 8 types of resource provision were revealed: raw, agroclimatic and food, labour, intellectual, production capacity, transport infrastructure, innovation, financial. For their assessment, the following statistical and authors’ indicators can be used: number of employees in a certain sector, added value in the manufacturing segment, number of researchers in the group of countries, 3-year state budget exceeding the public debt, fossil fuel reserves, etc. The assessment showed that the share of the Greater Eurasian space in the global gross domestic product, natural rent, industry (including high-tech), patent generation, investments, freight traffic, significantly increased in 2000–2021. The most significant contributions to the development of the Greater Eurasian space are: land, transport infrastructure, budget safety from the EAEU; labour, land, GDP from countries except China; labour, production capacity, transport infrastructure, technology, international reserves from China. Such resource allocation strengthens cooperation within the GES, which is necessary to develop, introduce and promote advanced production technologies. </p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Elena L. Andreeva , Artem V. Ratner https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/681 Assessment and Classification Models of Regional Investment Projects Implemented through Concession Agreements 2023-12-14T16:44:22+05:00 Olga V. Loseva lov191171@yandex.ru Ilya V. Munerman ivmunerman@fa.ru Marina A. Fedotova mfedotova@fa.ru <p>Imposed wide-ranging sanctions require stricter control over the use of budget funds in order to increase the return on investment and minimise the risks of inappropriate spending. Thus, regional development based on the implementation of investment projects with public participation through concession agreements becomes particularly important. The article considers the construction of classification models for the assessment of such projects to identify high-risk concession agreements. State customers can use these models to make informed decisions when choosing a contractor and to improve the efficiency of public property management. For an objective assessment of the integrity of contractors based on financial and other factors, the study used screening models and built-in tools of the SPARK information and analytical system, as well as the methods of descriptive analysis of big data, machine learning and the nearest neighbours approach for clustering regional investment projects according to the risk of improper execution of concession agreements. The presented approach was tested on 1248 regional investment projects implemented through concession agreements. As a result, the research identified two clusters: projects with low risk (83.8 %) and high risk (16.2 %) of improper performance of obligations by the concessionaire. To assess the models’ accuracy and sensitivity to outliers, the confusion matrix and Spearman’s coefficient were utilised, which showed a sufficiently high accuracy of the resulting classification. The constructed models can be used for selecting regional investment projects, as well as for monitoring implemented projects in order to identify potential risks of their non-completion and timely take necessary response measures.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Olga V. Loseva , Ilya V. Munerman , Marina A. Fedotova https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/291 Concentration in Regional Consumer Loan Markets in the Context of Growing Digitalisation of Banking Services in Russia 2022-11-25T10:47:40+05:00 Anna V. Mishura anna.mishura@gmail.com <p>Due to the dominance of the largest banks, the issue of increasing concentration and monopolisation of the Russian banking sector is discussed in regards to the competition in the industry. The Bank of Russia set the task to increase competition and reduce concentration in the financial sector, including at the regional level. This task can potentially be solved using new financial technologies, digital banking services and remote access technologies. The paper aims to assess the dynamics of concentration in local consumer loan markets in 2015–2021, as well as to answer how new financial technologies and digitalisation can increase competition in the banking sector at the regional level. The study calculated concentration indices and number of banks in consumer loan markets of Russian regions and the country as a whole. To this end, data from the website of the Bank of Russia, both for the retail loan market and the housing loan market, were analysed. The findings show that concentration indices did not decrease during this period. Simultaneously, the regional average number of banks issuing consumer loans decreased less than the total number of banks due to the entry of some banks into new regional markets. This means that the expansion of remaining banks to more regions, including through digitalisation and remote methods, has the potential to increase competition in the industry. However, at this point, only few consumer loans and deposits were provided by banks that do not have branches in a given region. Therefore, there is little evidence to suggest that new financial technologies are already increasing competition in the banking sector of Russian regions.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Anna V. Mishura https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/285 The Experience of Bulgaria in Attracting Foreign Direct Investment — Lessons for Emerging Economies 2022-12-26T19:23:46+05:00 Paskal N. Zhelev pzhelev@unwe.bg Aiman A. Kussainova akussainova1@shokan.edu.kz <p>Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been crucial in transitioning Central and Eastern European countries from planned to market economies, facilitating technological modernisation, job creation, export performance, and regional competitiveness. However, FDI alone cannot solve economic development challenges; effective policies are essential for leveraging FDI as a catalyst for economic catch-up. This paper aims to derive economic policy lessons for emerging economies through a critical assessment of the Bulgarian experience in attracting FDI. It employs a methodological approach that combines quantitative analysis of key FDI indicators with qualitative evaluation of the policy landscape. Since the end of the 1990s, Bulgaria has secured macroeconomic and political stability as an important precondition for FDI, applying an open-door policy for foreign investors without strategic targeting. The country&amp;apos;s accession to the European Union in 2007 further enhanced its investment appeal. Nevertheless, the passive policy of reliance on a low tax regime and low labour costs without a strategic focus has led to unbalanced regional and unfavourable sectoral distribution with foreign investors crowding into the metropolitan area and sectors like non-tradable services and low-end manufacturing. Thereby, the Bulgarian experience, where the quantity of incoming FDI overshadowed the quality, demonstrates the insufficiency of a laissez-faire FDI strategy for maximising the benefits of FDI. The study underscores the necessity for proactive state policies in emerging economies that not only attract FDI but also ensure it fosters technological transfer and stimulates the economic potential of underdeveloped regions.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Paskal N. Zhelev , Aiman A. Kussainova https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/301 The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Openness on The Ghanaian Economy 2022-12-20T14:23:37+05:00 Evans Yeboah xyeboah1@mendelu.cz <p>Foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade openness serve as macroeconomic indicators that support economic growth. Numerous studies conducted in recent years have empirically demonstrated the significance of FDI and trade liberalisation. Historical data illustrates that Ghana operates as a net importer, posing several challenges for domestic firms due to the comparative advantage of multinational enterprises and economies of scale. However, the full extent of the theories surrounding FDI and trade openness remains incompletely understood across all economies. This study aims to uncover the impact of FDI and foreign trade on economic growth in Ghana. The study utilised time series data sourced from the World Bank spanning from 1985 to 2021, on an annual frequency. The econometric methods employed include a unit root test (ADF), Engle-Granger cointegration test, and multiple regression analysis (Ordinary Least Squares). The ADF unit root test indicated that the variables were non-stationary and integrated at first-order difference. The Engle-Granger cointegration test revealed that the variables are cointegrated. Regression analysis results demonstrated that both FDI and trade openness exert a positive influence on economic enhancement in Ghana, with GDP serving as a proxy for growth. Furthermore, the analysis showed that FDI has a positive impact on GDP per capita, whereas trade openness negatively affects it, utilising GDP per capita as the explained variable. Based on these findings, the study recommends that policymakers implement sound FDI and trade policies to foster economic growth in the country.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Evans Yeboah https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/476 Examining the Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainties on the Stock Market Index: Analysis by Nonlinear ARDL Method for G7 Countries 2023-06-05T11:47:50+05:00 Eda Fendoğlu eda.fendoglu@ozal.edu.tr Mehmet Ali Polat mmpol0106201@gmail.com <p>Uncertainties are important factors that influence the decisions made by societies. Economic uncertainties closely affect society’s consumption and investment behaviour. Rising stock markets increase investors’ confidence, resulting in more purchases and higher stock prices and, in this context, an increase in consumer spending. When stock prices decrease, company investments are also negatively affected as consumer spending declines. Thus, increases and decreases in stock prices affect the general economy as they affect business confidence and consumers. The study analyses the effect of uncertainty in economic policies on stock markets, leading to a decrease in investor confidence in the economy. Such effects in G7 countries were examined using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period 1998:M05–2020:M09. This method was able to capture symmetries and asymmetries in the relationship between economic policy uncertainties and the stock markets. The results showed that heightened uncertainty in economic policy in Japan has a significantly negative effect on the stock market index, but in Germany and Italy, it has a significantly positive effect. Rising interest rates have negatively affected the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom. The increase in the industrial production index is positively related to the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, and France. Additionally, uncertainties in economic policy have asymmetric impacts on the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan and Italy, and symmetrical impacts in Germany, France and the United Kingdom.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Eda Fendoğlu , Mehmet Ali Polat https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/192 Human Development Index of China and Economic Growth: Hindsight and Global Perspective 2022-09-02T15:17:11+05:00 Shaodong Shi shi919871055@gmail.com <p class="x----------------">Currently, it becomes important to examine the role of human capital in the context of China’s economic development and its impact on the world economy. The paper reconstructs a realistic Human Development Index (HDI) and corresponding dimensional indices of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and its provinces for 1990–2020. The obtained indices were compared with those of the major countries of the world or countries similar to Chinese provinces, revealing that China underestimates its HDI, according to the United Nations Development Programme data. To analyse the role of human capital in economic growth of the world, China, and a group of countries similar in population size and HDI to Chinese provinces, a constructed model combined human capital with education quality and physical capital. The findings show that the PRC overcame negative conditions affecting its ability to grow rapidly. It took China just 30 years to reach the same level of HDI that other countries achieved in 40 years. Additionally, inequalities in HDI of Chinese provinces were significantly reduced. By 2025, 90 % of the PRC’s population is expected to reach a very high level of human development, thus completing the transformation from a developing to a so<span class="char-style-override-32">-</span>called developed country. Educational human capital explains almost three<span class="char-style-override-32">-</span>quarters of economic growth variation in the long run, while the average duration of education will continue to influence economic growth in the next 10–30 years. Considering demographic, institutional, and technological effects, as well as the objectives of the 14th Five<span class="char-style-override-32">-</span>Year Plan, an increase in the duration and quality of education in China is predicted. The paper demonstrates that PRC’s recent economic growth is due to an increase in both physical and human capital.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Shaodong Shi https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/355 Statistical Analysis of Uneven Digitalization Across Russian Regions and Its Impact on the Total Fertility Rate 2023-01-10T09:42:00+05:00 Natalia V. Tonkikh nvvorob1@mail.ru Vladislav A. Kataev kataevkataev10@yandex.ru Elena M. Kochkina kem_d@mail.ru <p class="x----------------">Russia has been historically characterised by a high regional socio<span class="char-style-override-32">-</span>economic differentiation, including in the sphere of population. Nowadays, information and communication technologies are spreading at different speeds in various regions. Since the impact of digitalisation on fertility is understudied, it is necessary to find methods for identifying connections between them. The paper assesses the development of Russian regions in terms of the total fertility rate (TFR) in regions differently using information and communication technologies. To this end, the study obtained data from the Federal State Statistics Service, namely, from the section “Information and communication technologies” of reports “Regions of Russia: socio<span class="char-style-override-32">-</span>economic indicators”. Univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied. Russian regions were clustered according to 16 indicators characterising their digital development. Data for 2014 and 2019 were analysed. Three clusters — «best», «average» and «worst» — were identified. The higher polarisation was observed in 2014: 4 regions were included in the “average” cluster, 29 in the “best” cluster, and 46 in the “worst” cluster. In 2019, the polarisation diminished: 45 regions belonged to the “average” cluster, 33 to the “best” cluster, only 4 to the “worst” cluster (Republics of Dagestan, North Ossetia<span class="char-style-override-32">-</span>Alania, Tyva, Chechen Republic). The results show that the total fertility rate is lower in clusters with higher values of digital development. In 2014–2019, TFR decreased by 31.1% in the “best” and by 47.7% in the “average” clusters; on the other hand, this indicator increased by 37.7 % in the “worst” cluster. However, it is difficult to assess the exact effect of specific digitalisation factors on fertility due to their complexity and interdependence. Further studies can focus on statistical evaluation of the impact of employment on reproductive behaviour.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Natalia V. Tonkikh , Vladislav A. Kataev , Elena M. Kochkina https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/372 The Economic Nature and Essence of Regional Competitiveness: A Narrative Approach 2023-04-06T16:22:02+05:00 Yury V. Taranukha yu.taranukha@mail.ru <p>Regional competitiveness remains a debated issue. This problem requires a solution, as competitiveness is now seen not only as an indicator of achievement, but also as a tool for performance assessment of regional authorities. Additionally, a correct understanding of the essence of this phenomenon helps define objectives and tools of regional policy and management. The article aims to reveal the true nature of regional competitiveness as a form of competitiveness and describe its specific characteristics. The content analysis of relevant foreign and Russian publications shows that the stated problem cannot be solved by existing methods. Therefore, it is necessary to apply a fundamentally different approach that looks at the problem from the standpoint of struggle for economic benefits. A system-reproductive method of analysis demonstrated that, by its nature, competitiveness is the ability of economic entities to redistribute economic value in their favour. Regional competitiveness is interpreted as a form of competitiveness, occurring when regions acquire economic subjectivity. Such subjectivity is characterised by the presence of separate material interests, authority and regulatory powers resulting from the transformation of regions into elements of the productive forces of society. This creates competition between regions for investment resources necessary to achieve regional goals. Regional competitiveness is defined as the ability of a region to redistribute investment flows in its favour by creating an attractive environment and incentives for their application. The given interpretation, which adequately describes the nature of regional competitiveness, has a number of advantages, such as syntheticity, sustainability, flexibility and operability.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Yury V. Taranukha https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/712 Central Asian Migrants in the Labour Market of Sverdlovsk Oblast: A Sociological Study 2023-10-23T10:22:37+05:00 Natalia N. Neklyudova neklyudova.np@uiec.ru Elena B. Bedrina bedrina.eb@uiec.ru Olga A. Kozlova kozlova.oa@uiec.ru <p>International migration significantly affects demographic and socio-economic development of regions. The study aims to assess the situation and characteristics of adaptation of Central Asian migrants in the regional labour market and identify general trends. The sociological study was conducted in March–May 2023 in Sverdlovsk oblast using a questionnaire survey and intelligence interviews. Selected questionnaires of migrants from countries seen as the main suppliers of labour power to the regional labour market — Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — were analysed. The obtained results confirmed some conclusions of previous relevant studies and revealed new trends. The labour market of Sverdlovsk oblast is characterised by a high proportion of immigrants from Tajikistan, a growing share of people employed in the industrial sector and the tendency of immigrants from Kyrgyzstan to organise their own business. The research described the factors that help migrants adapt to the regional labour market: specific legal regulation (in Kyrgyzstan), knowledge of the Russian language, family ties, education, formal employment, length of stay in Russia, naturalisation. To improve the migration policy, it is recommended to control and stimulate formal employment of foreign workers by establishing a unified database and constantly monitoring information about labour migrants and their family members. Results of this study may be useful for specialists in the field of labour migration. Considering the development of new migration policy tools, it is necessary to pay attention to this prospective area of research, particularly, to the issues of labour patents and organised recruitment.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Natalia N. Neklyudova , Elena B. Bedrina , Olga A. Kozlova https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/341 Valuation and Directions of Development of Human Capital in the Republic of Belarus 2023-04-03T14:18:24+05:00 Anna P. Gevrasyova anya1478@mail.ru Irina V. Glukhova Gluirina@mail.ru Anna A. Kazushchik annabmv@mail.ru <p class="x----------------">Implementation of the sustainable development model requires a revision of traditional approaches to the concept and valuation of human capital, as its reproduction determines the wealth of a country. Human capital is the basis for the sustainable development of the Republic of Belarus: its preservation and growth affect investments related to the reproduction of capital. Sources of such investments include the net income of the population, funds of organisations and government bodies. The study aims to develop theoretical and methodological foundations for the valuation of human capital it order to determine suitable investment areas. The concepts “human capital” and “investment in human capital” were analysed to identify investment subjects and objects at different levels of the economy. The proposed method for the valuation of human capital relies on the theory of reproduction rent and considers the investment component as a driving factor of its regional and national development. To assess the reproduction of human capital, the study presented a discount indicator as the inverse of the average life expectancy of the population, indirectly expressing its level and quality of life. Data on the socio-economic development of regions of Belarus were examined. Testing of the proposed approach demonstrated that the production of human capital is constant and increases over time. Its sustainable reproduction is affected by the net income of the population and public investments in the social sphere, including education and healthcare. To strengthen human capital, business entities are recommended to invest in improving professional qualifications of employees, as well as their working conditions. The obtained results can be used to develop and implement socio-economic policy at the regional level.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Anna P. Gevrasyova , Irina V. Glukhova , Anna A. Kazushchik https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/243 Measurement and Assessment of Human Capital for the Regional Labour Market 2023-01-09T10:22:56+05:00 Dmitry L. Skipin dskipin@mail.ru Anastasia V. Sapozhnikova a.v.sapozhnikova@utmn.ru Yuliya A. Yukhtanova y.a.yukhtanova@utmn.ru <p class="x----------------">Despite the rapidly growing bibliography and a relative scientific consensus, the measurement of human capital at different levels, degrees of detail, socio-economic traditions remains a topical issue due to the use of various conceptualisation, measurement and interpretation techniques. However, the results of obtaining and measuring human capital so far have fallen short of expectations for a number of reasons, some of which are addressed in this article. Considering the specificity and diversity of Russian regions, assessment of their human capital gained importance in Russian scientific discourse in both quantitative and qualitative research. The present study aims to examine the influence of significant factors, including those determining regional specificity, on the self-assessment of human capital for the labour market in different segments of the economically active population. To obtain data, a new (for Russian scientific discourse) method of asking a group of questions and measuring total human capital for the labour market was applied. The study used the authors’ database and identified groups of factors and their effect on the self-assessment of human capital in accordance with well-known theoretical propositions. As a result, the article explained the influence of both external (satisfaction with living in a region and trust in local authorities) and traditional factors on the quality of human capital for some categories of the working population on the example of a specific Russian region.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Dmitry L. Skipin , Anastasia V. Sapozhnikova , Yuliya A. Yukhtanova https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/578 Impact of GRP Per Capita on the Quality of Life of the Population in Russian Regions 2023-09-18T09:11:50+05:00 Timur V. Kramin kramint@mail.ru Darya A. Ustyuzhanina davahterova@yandex.ru <p class="x----------------">Most countries consider dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) as an indicator of economic policy success. Despite its importance and usefulness, GDP has limitations when it comes to assessing the situation in society and some economic development characteristics. The paper examines the relationship between gross regional product (GRP) per capita and the quality of life of the population in Russian regions. The impact of GRP on the quality of life was modelled on panel data using spatial fixed effects. As a result, well-specified models explaining differences in the dependent variable were identified. The study confirmed the presence of a constant elasticity of the integral index of the quality of life of the population in Russian regions for GRP per capita (0.588). Regional fixed effects were analysed in dynamics to assess their potential for ensuring the quality of life of the population. Additionally, opportunities resulting from GRP distribution and the effectiveness of regional policies in creating conditions for maintaining the quality of life were examined. Positive fixed effects increase in regions with high integral indices during the observation period, while the opposite is observed in lagging regions. Therefore, the inequality of regions is growing. The research demonstrated that previously created capacities for ensuring the quality of life of the population, not related to current GRP per capita, are a key factor. Consequently, the integral index of the quality of life in Russian regions is mainly determined not by current GRP per capita but by regional specificity and long-term regional policies of GRP distribution and ensuring the quality of life. In this regard, it is advisable to identify best practices of leading regions and disseminate them in order to support lagging regions.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Крамин Тимур Владимирович , Устюжанина Дарья Александровна https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/647 A Medium-Term Interindustry Econometric Model of the Moscow Economy 2023-08-08T11:03:44+05:00 Кирилл Михайлович Никитин kirill.nikitin@tax-policy.ru Alexander A. Shirov schirov-mse@yandex.ru Yulia Yu. Chaplina yuliya.chaplina@tax-policy.ru Dmitry A. Polzikov dmitry.polzikov@gmail.com Vadim V. Potapenko vadvpotap@gmail.com <p class="x----------------">As the largest Russian region with high socio-economic indicators, Moscow affects economic development of the whole country. Therefore, the present study aims to develop a model to forecast main indicators of the Moscow economy. To accomplish the task, it is necessary to: a) choose a suitable model and forecasting methods; b) transform available regional statistics into an appropriate form; c) select an algorithm for assessing the impact of detailed budget expenditures on the Moscow economy; d) combine the obtained results to construct a forecasting model. The proposed medium-term forecasting model of the Moscow economy includes both interindustry and econometric approaches. The study justified the use of cross-validation metrics for selecting optimal econometric forecasting models. An algorithm for converting budget expenditure data from detailed expenditure codes into economic activities and product data was developed. We assessed the impact of Moscow’s budget expenditures on the economy considering intra-city interindustry connections. According to the model calculations, two complex macroeconomic forecasts were used as scenarios: the base forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (April 2023) and the lower-growth forecast of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (March 2023). The scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development assumes that, in 2023–2025, the Russian gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices will increase by 1.2, 2.0 and 2.6 %, respectively. The gross regional product (GRP) of Moscow is expected to increase by 0.5, 0.8 and 1.2 %, respectively. The calculations show that, depending on these scenarios, Moscow’s GRP in current prices will grow up to 30.9-31.7 trillion roubles by 2025. Moscow budget expenditure multiplier for GRP is estimated as 0.76-0.77 for 2023-2025.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Кирилл Михайлович Никитин, Alexander A. Shirov , Yulia Yu. Chaplina , Dmitry A. Polzikov , Vadim V. Potapenko https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/468 Stress in the Real Economy of Russian Regions under the Pandemic and Sanctions 2023-03-01T12:27:07+05:00 Marina Yu. Malkina mmuri@yandex.ru <p class="x----------------">Recently, the Russian economy has been affected by sanctions and pandemic shocks. Russian regions reacted differently depending on their spatial location and sectoral structure of economies. Using monthly data for 2016-2023, the article assesses the dynamics of stress of regions’ industrial production volume, retail turnover and volume of paid services to the population. A stress index is calculated as a moving difference between the standard deviation and the average growth rate of the indicator compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. An integrated stress index is a simple sum of individual stress indices normalised using the Z-score method within the panel data framework. As a result, time series of individual and integrated stress indices at the national, federal district and regional levels were obtained. The average stress levels of different Russian regions were compared for the entire period and three sub-periods: pre-pandemic, pandemic (from March, 2020 to February, 2022) and post-pandemic/new sanctions. The data revealed a greater and relatively uniform sensitivity of the service sector of Russian regions to the pandemic; various reactions of regional industries to sanctions, causing the diversification effect across the country; greater trade response to pandemic shocks and industry response to new sanctions. On average, the constituent entities of the North Caucasus Federal District turned out to be the most vulnerable to shocks, while the regions of the Siberian Federal District showed the greatest stability. The study demonstrated that sectoral structure and regional income level are significant factors determining the resilience of the regional real economy to pandemic shocks, while spatial location is also important in response to sanctions.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Marina Yu. Malkina https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/435 Import Intensity of the Russian Economy 2023-05-17T13:16:09+05:00 Aleksandr I. Dushenin a.dushenin@g.nsu.ru Iurii. S. Ershov eryus@mail.ru Naimdzhon M. Ibragimov naimdjon.ibragomov@gmail.com <p class="x----------------">In the pre<span class="char-style-override-32">-</span>sanction period, foreign economic relations in Russia were growing in importance. While the country’s gross domestic product increased by 1.75 times in 2013 compared to 2000, imports increased by 5.7 times in comparable prices during this period. Despite actual and potential effects of comparative advantages, the growing dependence on foreign markets also had negative consequences. The study assesses the demand for imported goods, considering the existing interindustry relations in the Russian economy. The paper describes the first stage of comparison of direct and total costs for the Russian economy and presents mathematical tools used to calculate indicators of its import dependence. In the future, we are planning to extend this approach to examine the spatial economy of two macrozones, namely, the European and Asian parts of Russia. Statistics show that the direct import intensity of the Russian economy is approximately 6 %, which is less than the global average. The vertical specialisation index of about 11 % indicates a relatively low dependence of the export of domestic goods on imports. In 2014–2020, total import costs reduced the most in the pulp and paper industry (<span class="char-style-override-32">-</span>5 %) and vehicle manufacturing industry (<span class="char-style-override-32">-</span>3 %) mainly due to a decline in their import intensity. In general, the impact of forced import substitution turned out to be negative for most regions after 2013. The proposed methods can be used to forecast the trade balance and consequences of implementing various import substitution policies. Since that intermediate consumption flows are included in indirect and total costs, it is advisable to develop a methodology accounting for investment goods.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Aleksandr I. Dushenin , Yuri S. Ershov , Naimdzhon M. Ibragimov https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/726 Parameter Identification of the Agent-Based Model for Managing a Regional Industrial Complex 2023-11-22T10:23:48+05:00 Victoria V. Akberdina akberdina.vv@uiec.ru Andrey F. Shorikov shorikov.af@uiec.ru Grigoriy B. Korovin korovin.gb@uiec.ru Dmitry V. Dmitry V. Sirotin sirotin.dv@uiec.ru <p class="x----------------">Current challenges facing the Russian economy require models to optimise industrial management processes at the regional level. Therefore, a three-level hierarchical agent-based model for minimax control of the regional industrial complex is considered in this research. The study aims to develop an approach to solving a parameter identification problem of the agent-based model for managing the industrial complex of Sverdlovsk oblast. To this end, the paper presents a theoretical justification for the implemented approach, a formalisation of the aforementioned problem, and an algorithm for constructing and selecting models to assess management system parameters. The method of linear regression analysis was applied to solve the identification problem. The proposed approach was tested using data on 28 types of industrial activity in Sverdlovsk oblast for 2005–2021. The phase vector of statistical identification models was defined by the following parameters: the average annual number of employees of enterprises; fixed assets; gross value added; volume of shipped goods, performed works and services; balanced financial results of enterprises; investment in fixed capital; costs of implementing and using digital technologies. The control vector was determined by the factors of attracting budgetary and other (external) funds. As a result, 125 high-quality models were built to solve parameter identification problems of the agent-based model used for managing the industrial complex of Sverdlovsk oblast. The obtained statistical models can be used to establish communication between agents, clarify their specificity, calculate and assess management performance. The proposed approach can be applied to predict the development of regional industrial complexes in accordance with planned control actions, as well as to calculate control actions necessary to achieve target parameters.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Victoria V. Akberdina , Andrey F. Shorikov , Grigoriy B. Korovin , Dmitry V. Sirotin https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/743 Coordination of Regional Innovation Processes to Ensure the Technological Competitiveness of Russia 2023-11-27T09:17:50+05:00 Irina M. Golova irina_golova@mail.ru <p>Although Russia has approximately 200 tools to support science and innovation, the observed innovative activity of Russian organisations of 12 % is 4-6 times lower than that of most technologically developed countries. Under international sanctions, it is necessary to enhance the innovative component of the country’s technological competitiveness. The study hypothesises that improvement of innovation processes management in Russian regions requires a transition to a holistic innovation policy aimed at harmonising regional science, technology and production to ensure technological sovereignty. The article refines the methodology and mechanisms of the Russian innovation policy. The author’s approach to the implementation of the mission-oriented innovation policy considering the specificity of Russian regions is described. The use of a layered innovation strategy is substantiated. Innovative activity should first be stimulated in regions with the highest development of science and technology industries; then, other regions should be gradually involved in innovation processes. The following indicators are considered while selecting regions: the number of R&amp;D employees, shipping volume of high – and medium-tech enterprises, number of university students, fiscal capacity. Data of the Federal State Statistics Service are analysed. The rank method is used for a preliminary selection of 10 regions most suitable for implementing the developed approach (Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Republic of Tatarstan, Nizhny Novgorod, Sverdlovsk oblasts, etc.). The study presents innovation missions for these regions aimed to overcome the technological gap and reduce import dependence (innovative import substitution, circular economy, etc.). The findings can be used to improve innovation policy at the federal and regional levels. Future studies should focus on establishing theoretical and methodological foundations of a unified scientific and technological space in Russia.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Irina M. Golova https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/592 Industrial Structural Changes in the Economy of the Udmurt Republic 2023-08-11T13:38:09+05:00 Anna V. Ovchinnikova ovchinnikova.av@uiec.ru Egor A. Bogachev vilizari@mail.ru <p class="x----------------">A slowdown in economic growth implies the need to identify driver industries that will ensure the development on a new basis. The study aims to analyse industrial structural changes in the economy of the Udmurt Republic in the context of consolidated types of economic activity. It is suggested that shifts in the industrial structure of gross regional product (GRP) of the Udmurt Republic did not accelerate its economic growth. To achieve the set goal, theoretical aspects of structural changes were examined, a retrospective analysis of statistical data for 2004–2021 was performed. A modified methodology of dynamic macrostructural analysis was applied to study structural changes along with economic growth rate. Historical background of the industrial structure formation was analysed. When assessing the quality of structural changes, the index of physical volume of GRP per capita was used instead of GRP. Additionally, the study introduced the concept of “structural determinant of economic growth”. The conduced analysis revealed two structural lags and four small periods, characterised by a certain ratio of manufacturing and mining industries, in which five significant structural shifts occurred. The region’s industrial economic structure is the result of natural, geographical and political factors. Structural changes in the examined period, being a consequence of the volatility of world oil prices, did not ensure long-term economic growth or a fundamental transformation of the technological structure of the regional industry. The obtained results can be used to develop regional structural policies from the perspective of driver industries and ensure sustainable economic growth. Future studies should substantiate the “optimality” of regional economic structure, considering the interdependence of industries and integration into the national production system.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Anna V. Ovchinnikova , Egor A. Bogachev https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/445 Assessment of Economic and Environmental Conditions for Effective Development of Silicate Nickel Ores from Deposits in the Middle Urals 2023-09-20T15:34:39+05:00 Aleksandr I. Semyachkov a.semyachkov@mail.ru Valery V. Balashenko balashenko.vv@uiec.ru <p>. Development of nickel deposits in the Ural will be economically beneficial for both Russia and the region. As an important strategic raw material, nickel is used in the nuclear, military, pharmaceutical, petrochemical industries, as well as in the production of portable electronic devices, electric vehicles, etc. Given the current global political situation, Russia has to develop the resource base focusing on domestic deposits, especially those located in industrially developed regions. In order to assess business performance, the paper analyses technical and economic indicators, such as expected income, investment attractiveness, prospects for accelerating development. As a result, the study presents an economic justification for the development of nickel deposits in the Middle Urals and an assessment of the technical and economic feasibility of mining relatively low-grade silicate nickel ores. The development of these deposits implies an increase in expenditures on subsoil management and environmental protection and an improvement of social conditions for the population (increased employment, regular environmental and medical-biological expertise, etc.). The article proposes measures for the rational integrated use of extracted raw materials in the considered deposits, particularly, production of building materials from mineral waste considering environmental and social factors. Economic calculations performed for the Kungur deposit (annual ore production capacity of 396 thousand tonnes), the Parushinsky deposit (273 thousand tonnes) and the Serov deposit (600 thousand tonnes) showed a high profitability of mining operations, including the processing of mineral waste.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Aleksandr I. Semyachkov , Valery V. Balashenko https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/377 Regional Environmental Policy of the Far Eastern Federal District in the Context of National Strategic Goals 2023-03-15T10:50:31+05:00 Zoya G. Mirzekhanova lorp@ivep.as.khb.ru Anastasiya A. Koltsova never_give_up@mail.ru <p>In 2020, Russia and its regions adopted new national and regional development programmes, including in the field of environmental protection. Both strategic and tactical issues of environmental policy are addressed at the regional level. The results of previous programmes were disappointing for many reasons. Particularly, national interests are not always considered when developing regional environmental programmes. The present study analyses new environmental programmes adopted in regions of the Far Eastern Federal District and their connection to the federal environmental programme. It is hypothesised that there is a disconnect between the structure and objectives of regional programmes and federal environmental policy. The study analysed environmental safety regulations, government reports and environmental protection programmes of regions of the Far Eastern Federal District. Methods of quantitative and qualitative content analysis, comparative analysis, data visualisation, etc., were utilised. New environmental programmes of Far Eastern regions were reviewed. A conducted analysis of 153 target indicators for achieving the goals of regional programmes indicates a difference between them and the federal environmental programme. Only 50% of them take into account the federal programme guidelines. An internal content analysis of regional programmes revealed general priorities of the Far Eastern environmental policy: 44% of the indicators are related to the conservation of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Additionally, 21% of the indictors relate exclusively to issues of resource industries rather than to environmental protection; for example, 14% are related to the development of mineral resources. In general, 8 out of 11 programmes take into account the territory’s resource specialisation. Accordingly, recommendations for improving the structure and content of regional programmes were proposed. The results can be used to assess regional environmental policies and create environmental programmes for other territories.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Zoya G. Mirzekhanova , Anastasiya A. Koltsova https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/837 The Role of Transport, ICT and Power Infrastructure in the Ethiopian Economy 2024-03-27T01:44:56+05:00 Henrietta Nagy nagy.henrietta@uni-milton.hu Ahmed Abduletif Abdulkadr ahmedabduletifabdulkadr@su.edu.et György Iván Neszmélyi neszmelyi.gyorgy@uni-milton.hu <p>Infrastructure development plays an important role in reducing poverty, assuring food security and sustainable development of a country. One of the key challenges hindering the economic growth of developing countries is the lack of proper transport, Information and Communication Technology (ICT), and energy sector infrastructures. This research aims to examine the importance of transport, ICT and power sector in Ethiopia’s economic growth and identify the main challenges these sectors have been facing based on data obtained from different secondary sources such as websites of the World Bank and Trading Economics, official reports, and published works. Descriptive statistical analysis was implemented to describe the secondary data obtained, while graphs, tables, and charts were used to visualise the results. Despite the difficulties in establishing and sustaining necessary infrastructure, research indicates that the growth of Ethiopia’s economy is largely attributed to infrastructure development. Furthermore, year after year, progress has been made in each sector of development, though there are still obstacles to overcome. Poor quality of road, transport and ICT infrastructure have been key factors of poor development in the country. There is an imbalance between the power needed and the available power. Given Ethiopia’s abundance of resources, the country must continue to prioritise infrastructure development.</p> 2024-03-28T00:00:00+05:00 Copyright (c) 2024 Матушкина Наталья