2411-14062411-140610.17059/ekon.reg.2025-2-21The Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Economic Growth Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging MarketsВоздействие инфляционной неопределенности на темпы экономического роста в развивающихся странах с таргетированием инфляцииhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8703-0215Köse Tuna Кёсе Туна tunakose48@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7568-5927Öztop Ali Osman Озтоп Али Османaliosmanoztop@mu.edu.trIndependent Researcherнезависимый исследовательMuğla Sıtkı Koçman UniversityУниверситет Мугла Ситки Кочман212566581https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/929https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/929/440

Since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, both emerging and developed economies have encountered increased economic uncertainty. Despite substantial research on macroeconomic uncertainties, there remains a significant gap in understanding asymmetric causal relationships between inflation uncertainty and economic growth in inflation-targeting emerging markets. This study addresses this gap by exploring both symmetric and asymmetric causality between inflation uncertainty and economic growth in selected countries: Brazil, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, India, Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Türkiye. Asymmetric causality tests are crucial as they offer a more nuanced view of how inflation uncertainty and economic growth impact each other in distinct ways, which is vital for enhancing macroeconomic stability and policy effectiveness. The research employs the ARMA-GARCH model to estimate inflation uncertainty and applies both symmetric and asymmetric causality tests. The findings reveal a unidirectional causality from inflation uncertainty to economic growth in Brazil and Bulgaria, and from economic growth to inflation uncertainty in Russia and Türkiye. Furthermore, asymmetric shock analysis shows that negative shocks in inflation uncertainty lead to negative shocks in economic growth in Russia and Korea, while positive shocks in inflation uncertainty correspond with positive shocks in economic growth in India. These insights can help policymakers in emerging markets develop more effective monetary policies. Future research should include a broader range of countries and additional macroeconomic variables to validate these findings and explore inflation uncertainty dynamics further.

После глобального финансового кризиса 2008–2009 гг. страны как с развивающейся, так и с развитой экономикой столкнулись с ростом макроэкономической неопределенности. Несмотря на то, что макроэкономическим рискам посвящено множество исследований, существует заметный пробел в понимании асимметричных причинно-следственных связей между инфляционной неопределённостью и экономическим ростом в развивающихся странах с инфляционным таргетированием. Настоящее исследование направлено на восполнение этого пробела с помощью анализа симметричной и асимметричной причинно-следственной связи между инфляционной неопределённостью и темпами экономического роста в Бразилии, Болгарии, Чехии, Греции, Индии, Республике Корея, Мексике, России и Турции. Тесты на асимметричную причинно-следственную связь выявляют более тонкие взаимосвязи между показателями, что, в свою очередь, позволяет выработать меры по укреплению макроэкономической стабильности и усилению эффективности экономической политики. В исследовании используется модель ARMA-GARCH для оценки инфляционной неопределённости, а также применяются тесты на симметричную и асимметричную причинно-следственную связь. Установлено наличие однонаправленной причинной связи между инфляционной неопределенностью и экономическим ростом в Бразилии и Болгарии, а также между экономическим ростом и инфляционной неопределённостью в России и Турции. Кроме того, анализ асимметричных шоков показывает, что отрицательные шоки инфляционной неопределённости сопровождаются снижением темпов экономического роста в России и Республике Корея, тогда как положительные шоки инфляционной неопределённости связаны с ускорением экономического роста в Индии. Данные результаты могут использоваться для формирования более эффективной денежно-кредитной политики в развивающихся странах. Дальнейшие исследования могут быть связаны с расширением географии анализа и включением дополнительных макроэкономических переменных для верификации результатов и более глубокого понимания динамики инфляционной неопределённости.

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