2072-64142411-140610.17059/ekon.reg.2024-4-22The Impact of China’s Environmental Protection Tax on Regional Economic EffectsВлияние налога на охрану окружающей среды в Китае на региональные экономические эффектыhttps://orcid.org/0009-0005-3273-8119Chenghao Ye Чэнхао Е 2287532085@qq.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8791-665XMayburov Igor A. МайбуровИгорь Анатольевич mayburov.home@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-8225-028XИн Ван Ying Wang 1127486294@qq.comUral Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. YeltsinУральский федеральный университет им. первого Президента России Б. Н. Ельцина20413151326Copyright © 2024 Ye Chenghao, Igor A. Mayburov, Ван ИнCopyright © 2024 Е Чэнхао, Игорь Анатольевич Майбуров, Wang Ying2024Ye Chenghao, Igor A. Mayburov, Ван ИнЕ Чэнхао, Игорь Анатольевич Майбуров, Wang YingCC BY 4.0https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/855https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/855/394

In 2018, China adopted the Environmental Protection Tax Law, transitioning from administrative fees to statutory taxes. The law aimed to incentivize enterprises to reduce pollution emissions through economic means, improve environmental quality, and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structures for economic development. This study seeks to reveal the mechanisms of the impact of environmental protection tax on regional economic effects, providing policy recommendations for achieving high-quality economic development and ecological environmental protection. The study analyses four key variables—environmental protection tax revenue, regional industrial output value, regional GDP, and regional industrial pollution control investment—from 31 regions in China between 2018 and 2022, forming a sample of 30 observations. A random effects model is constructed and empirically analysed using Python 3.12. The empirical results show that for every additional unit of environmental protection tax, the average expected growth of regional GDP is 0.1043 units. There are significant differences in the economic effects of China’s environmental protection tax on regions, and these differences have random effects. This study provides new insights and empirical evidence for understanding and evaluating the impact of environmental protection taxes on regional economic outcomes, helping policymakers assess current impacts and continue encouraging enterprises to adopt clean production technologies, improve energy efficiency, and promote economic structure optimization and industrial upgrading to support high-quality economic development.

В 2018 г. в Китае был официально принят закон о налоге на охрану окружающей среды, ознаменовавший переход от административных сборов к экологическим налогам. Закон направлен на стимулирование предприятий к сокращению выбросов загрязняющих веществ налоговыми средствами, улучшению качества окружающей среды и одновременному содействию оптимизации и модернизации промышленных структур для экономического развития. Целью данного исследования является выявление механизмов влияния налога на охрану окружающей среды на региональные экономические эффекты, выработка рекомендаций для достижения качественного экономического развития и охраны окружающей среды. В качестве четырех ключевых переменных для формирования 30 выборок наблюдений взяты налоговые поступления от налогов на охрану окружающей среды, региональный объем промышленного производства, региональный ВВП и региональные инвестиции в борьбу с промышленным загрязнением из 31 региона Китая в период с 2018 по 2022 гг. Модель случайных эффектов построена и эмпирически проанализирована с помощью Python 3.12. Эмпирические результаты показывают, что для каждой дополнительной единицы налога на охрану окружающей среды средний ожидаемый рост регионального ВВП составляет 0,1043 единицы. Показаны значительные различия в экономическом влиянии налога на охрану окружающей среды Китая на регионы, и эти различия имеют случайные эффекты. Эти результаты дают новую перспективу и эмпирические данные для понимания влияния налога на охрану окружающей среды на региональные экономические эффекты, помогая органам власти оценивать текущие эффекты этого налога, постоянно мотивировать предприятия к внедрению экологически чистых производственных технологий и повышению энергоэффективности, способствовать оптимизации экономической структуры и модернизации промышленности, а, следовательно, и высококачественному экономическому развитию.

Regions of China, Environmental Protection Tax, Regional Economic Effects, Random Effects Model, Environmental Tax Policyрегионы Китая, налог на охрану окружающей среды, региональные экономические эффекты, модель случайных эффектов, экологическая налоговая политикаAbdullah, S., & Morley, B. (2014). Environmental taxes and economic growth: Evidence from panel causality tests. Energy Economics, 42, 27–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.11.013Aloi, M., & Tournemaine, F. (2011). Growth effects of environmental policy when pollution affects health. Economic Modelling, 28 (4), 1683–1695. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.02.035Barnea, A., Heinkel, R., & Kraus, A. (2005). Green investors and corporate investment. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 16 (3), 332–346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2004.04.002Bosquet, B. (2000). Environmental tax reform: does it work? A survey of the empirical evidence. Ecological Economics, 34 (1), 19–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921–8009(00)00173-7Bovenberg, A. L., & De Mooij, R. A. (1997). Environmental tax reform and endogenous growth. Journal of Public Economics, 63 (2), 207–237. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047–2727(96)01596-4Brock, W. A., & Taylor, M. S. (2005). Chapter 28 – Economic Growth and the Environment: A Review of Theory and Empirics. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1, 1749–1821. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574–0684(05)01028-2Ciaschini, M., Pretaroli, R., Severini, F., & Socci, C. (2012). Regional double dividend from environmental tax reform: An application for the Italian economy. Research in Economics, 66 (3), 273–283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2012.04.002Chenghao, Y., Mayburov, I. A., & Ying, W. (2024). Fiscal Effects of Environmental Tax Reform: A Comparative Analysis of China, Germany and the United Kingdom. Journal of Tax Reform, 10 (2), 258–270. https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2024.10.2.168De Miguel, C., & Manzano, B. (2011). Gradual green tax reforms. Energy Economics, 33, S50–S58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.026Durusu-Ciftci, D., Gokmenoglu, K. K., & Yetkiner, H. (2018). The heterogeneous impact of taxation on economic development: New insights from a panel cointegration approach. Economic Systems, 42 (3), 503–513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2018.01.001Fan, Q., Qiao, Y., Zhang, T., & Huang, K. (2021). Environmental regulation policy, corporate pollution control and economic growth effect: Evidence from China. Environmental Challenges, 5, 100244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100244Glomm, G., Kawaguchi, D., & Sepulveda, F. (2008). Green taxes and double dividends in a dynamic economy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30 (1), 19–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.09.001Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (2), 353–377. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443Hart, R. (2004). Growth, environment and innovation—a model with production vintages and environmentally oriented research. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 48 (3), 1078–1098. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2004.02.001Hassan, M., Oueslati, W., & Rousselière, D. (2020). Environmental taxes, reforms and economic growth: an empirical analysis of panel data. Economic Systems, 44 (3), 100806. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100806Holland, J. H. (2006). Studying complex adaptive systems. Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, 19, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11424-006-0001-zHu, H., Dong, W., & Zhou, Q. (2021). A comparative study on the environmental and economic effects of a resource tax and carbon tax in China: Analysis based on the computable general equilibrium model. Energy Policy, 156, 112460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112460Hu, X., Wu, H., Ni, W., Wang, Q., Zhou, D., & Liu, J. (2023). Quantifying the dynamical interactions between carbon pricing and environmental protection tax in China. Energy Economics, 126, 106912. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106912Isard, W. (1956). Regional science, the concept of region, and regional structure. Papers in Regional Science, 2 (1), 13¬–26. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435–5597.1956.tb01542.xKrugman, P. (1992). Geography and trade. MIT press. https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262610865/geography-and-trade/ (Date of access: 15.03.2024).Kumbhakar, S. C., Badunenko, O., & Willox, M. (2022). Do carbon taxes affect economic and environmental efficiency? The case of British Columbia’s manufacturing plants. Energy Economics, 115, 106359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106359Lee, Y., & Gordon, R. H. (2005). Tax structure and economic growth. Journal of Public Economics, 89 (5-6), 1027–1043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.07.002Li, G., Zhang, R., & Masui, T. (2021). CGE modeling with disaggregated pollution treatment sectors for assessing China’s environmental tax policies. Science of the Total Environment, 761, 143264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143264Liu, B., & Ge, J. (2023). The optimal choice of environmental tax revenue usage: incentives for cleaner production or end-of-pipe treatment? Journal of Environmental Management, 329, 117106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117106Liu, G., Yang, Z., Zhang, F., & Zhang, N. (2022). Environmental tax reform and environmental investment: a quasi-natural experiment based on China’s Environmental Protection Tax Law. Energy Economics, 109, 106000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106000North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808678Oueslati, W. (2014). Environmental tax reform: Short-term versus long-term macroeconomic effects. Journal of Macroeconomics, 40, 190–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.02.004Patuelli, R., Nijkamp, P., & Pels, E. (2005). Environmental tax reform and the double dividend: A meta-analytical performance assessment. Ecological Economics, 55 (4), 564–583. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.12.021Pigou, A. C. (1920). The Economics of Welfare. Macmillan. https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/pigou-the-economics-of-welfare (Date of access: 15.02.2024).Rakpho, P., Chitksame, T., & Kaewsompong, N. (2023). The effect of environmental taxes and economic growth on carbon emission in G7 countries applying panel kink regression. Energy Reports, 9, 1384–1391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2023.05.185Ren, Y., Hu, G., & Wan, Q. (2024). Environmental Protection Tax and Diversification Transition of Heavily Polluting Enterprises: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment in China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 81, 1570–1592. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.02.031Renström, T. I., Spataro, L., & Marsiliani, L. (2021). Can subsidies rather than pollution taxes break the trade-off between economic output and environmental protection? Energy Economics, 95, 105084. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105084Sun, Y., Belgacem, S. B., Khatoon, G., & Nazir, F. (2023). Impact of environmental taxation, green innovation, economic growth, and renewable energy on green total factor productivity. Gondwana Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2023.10.016Vellinga, N. (1999). Multiplicative utility and the influence of environmental care on the short-term economic growth rate. Economic Modelling, 16 (3), 307–330. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264–9993(99)00002-4Wang, J., Wang, K., Shi, X., & Wei, Y. M. (2019). Spatial heterogeneity and driving forces of environmental productivity growth in China: would it help to switch pollutant discharge fees to environmental taxes? Journal of Cleaner Production, 223, 36–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.045Wesseh Jr, P. K., & Lin, B. (2019). Environmental policy and ‘double dividend’ in a transitional economy. Energy Policy, 134, 110947. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110947Xie, L., Zuo, S., & Xie, Z. (2023). Environmental protection fee-to-tax and enterprise investment efficiency: Evidence from China. Research in International Business and Finance, 66, 102057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102057Zhang, X., Huang, Y., & Wei, F. (2024). The incentive effects of the macro tax burden on economic growth: A negative or positive incentive effect? Analysis based on panel data. International Review of Economics & Finance, 93, 128–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.03.006Abdullah, S., & Morley, B. (2014). Environmental taxes and economic growth: Evidence from panel causality tests. Energy Economics, 42, 27–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.11.013Aloi, M., & Tournemaine, F. (2011). Growth effects of environmental policy when pollution affects health. Economic Modelling, 28 (4), 1683–1695. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.02.035Barnea, A., Heinkel, R., & Kraus, A. (2005). Green investors and corporate investment. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 16 (3), 332–346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2004.04.002Bosquet, B. (2000). Environmental tax reform: does it work? A survey of the empirical evidence. Ecological Economics, 34 (1), 19–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921–8009(00)00173-7Bovenberg, A. L., & De Mooij, R. A. (1997). Environmental tax reform and endogenous growth. Journal of Public Economics, 63 (2), 207–237. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047–2727(96)01596-4Brock, W. A., & Taylor, M. S. (2005). Chapter 28 – Economic Growth and the Environment: A Review of Theory and Empirics. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1, 1749–1821. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574–0684(05)01028-2Ciaschini, M., Pretaroli, R., Severini, F., & Socci, C. (2012). Regional double dividend from environmental tax reform: An application for the Italian economy. Research in Economics, 66 (3), 273–283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2012.04.002Chenghao, Y., Mayburov, I. A., & Ying, W. (2024). Fiscal Effects of Environmental Tax Reform: A Comparative Analysis of China, Germany and the United Kingdom. Journal of Tax Reform, 10 (2), 258–270. https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2024.10.2.168De Miguel, C., & Manzano, B. (2011). Gradual green tax reforms. Energy Economics, 33, S50–S58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.026Durusu-Ciftci, D., Gokmenoglu, K. K., & Yetkiner, H. (2018). The heterogeneous impact of taxation on economic development: New insights from a panel cointegration approach. Economic Systems, 42 (3), 503–513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2018.01.001Fan, Q., Qiao, Y., Zhang, T., & Huang, K. (2021). Environmental regulation policy, corporate pollution control and economic growth effect: Evidence from China. Environmental Challenges, 5, 100244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100244Glomm, G., Kawaguchi, D., & Sepulveda, F. (2008). Green taxes and double dividends in a dynamic economy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30 (1), 19–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.09.001Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (2), 353–377. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443Hart, R. (2004). Growth, environment and innovation—a model with production vintages and environmentally oriented research. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 48 (3), 1078–1098. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2004.02.001Hassan, M., Oueslati, W., & Rousselière, D. (2020). Environmental taxes, reforms and economic growth: an empirical analysis of panel data. Economic Systems, 44 (3), 100806. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100806Holland, J. H. (2006). Studying complex adaptive systems. Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, 19, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11424-006-0001-zHu, H., Dong, W., & Zhou, Q. (2021). A comparative study on the environmental and economic effects of a resource tax and carbon tax in China: Analysis based on the computable general equilibrium model. Energy Policy, 156, 112460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112460Hu, X., Wu, H., Ni, W., Wang, Q., Zhou, D., & Liu, J. (2023). Quantifying the dynamical interactions between carbon pricing and environmental protection tax in China. Energy Economics, 126, 106912. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106912Isard, W. (1956). Regional science, the concept of region, and regional structure. Papers in Regional Science, 2 (1), 13¬–26. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435–5597.1956.tb01542.xKrugman, P. (1992). Geography and trade. MIT press. https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262610865/geography-and-trade/ (Date of access: 15.03.2024).Kumbhakar, S. C., Badunenko, O., & Willox, M. (2022). Do carbon taxes affect economic and environmental efficiency? The case of British Columbia’s manufacturing plants. Energy Economics, 115, 106359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106359Lee, Y., & Gordon, R. H. (2005). Tax structure and economic growth. Journal of Public Economics, 89 (5-6), 1027–1043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.07.002Li, G., Zhang, R., & Masui, T. (2021). CGE modeling with disaggregated pollution treatment sectors for assessing China’s environmental tax policies. Science of the Total Environment, 761, 143264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143264Liu, B., & Ge, J. (2023). The optimal choice of environmental tax revenue usage: incentives for cleaner production or end-of-pipe treatment? Journal of Environmental Management, 329, 117106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117106Liu, G., Yang, Z., Zhang, F., & Zhang, N. (2022). Environmental tax reform and environmental investment: a quasi-natural experiment based on China’s Environmental Protection Tax Law. Energy Economics, 109, 106000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106000North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808678Oueslati, W. (2014). Environmental tax reform: Short-term versus long-term macroeconomic effects. Journal of Macroeconomics, 40, 190–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.02.004Patuelli, R., Nijkamp, P., & Pels, E. (2005). Environmental tax reform and the double dividend: A meta-analytical performance assessment. Ecological Economics, 55 (4), 564–583. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.12.021Pigou, A. C. (1920). The Economics of Welfare. Macmillan. https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/pigou-the-economics-of-welfare (Date of access: 15.02.2024).Rakpho, P., Chitksame, T., & Kaewsompong, N. (2023). The effect of environmental taxes and economic growth on carbon emission in G7 countries applying panel kink regression. Energy Reports, 9, 1384–1391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2023.05.185Ren, Y., Hu, G., & Wan, Q. (2024). Environmental Protection Tax and Diversification Transition of Heavily Polluting Enterprises: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment in China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 81, 1570–1592. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.02.031Renström, T. I., Spataro, L., & Marsiliani, L. (2021). Can subsidies rather than pollution taxes break the trade-off between economic output and environmental protection? Energy Economics, 95, 105084. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105084Sun, Y., Belgacem, S. B., Khatoon, G., & Nazir, F. (2023). Impact of environmental taxation, green innovation, economic growth, and renewable energy on green total factor productivity. Gondwana Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2023.10.016Vellinga, N. (1999). Multiplicative utility and the influence of environmental care on the short-term economic growth rate. Economic Modelling, 16 (3), 307–330. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264–9993(99)00002-4Wang, J., Wang, K., Shi, X., & Wei, Y. M. (2019). Spatial heterogeneity and driving forces of environmental productivity growth in China: would it help to switch pollutant discharge fees to environmental taxes? Journal of Cleaner Production, 223, 36–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.045Wesseh Jr, P. K., & Lin, B. (2019). Environmental policy and ‘double dividend’ in a transitional economy. Energy Policy, 134, 110947. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110947Xie, L., Zuo, S., & Xie, Z. (2023). Environmental protection fee-to-tax and enterprise investment efficiency: Evidence from China. Research in International Business and Finance, 66, 102057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102057Zhang, X., Huang, Y., & Wei, F. (2024). The incentive effects of the macro tax burden on economic growth: A negative or positive incentive effect? Analysis based on panel data. International Review of Economics & Finance, 93, 128–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.03.006