2072-64142411-140610.17059/ekon.reg.2024-2-11Coastal Natural and Economic Systems of the Pechora-Kara Region in the Context of Climate Change RisksБереговые природно-хозяйственные системы Печорско-Карского региона в контексте рисков климатических измененийhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8426-9079BadinaSvetlana V.БадинаСветлана Вадимовна bad412@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9719-5152Pankratov Alexey A. ПанкратовАлексей Алексеевич pankratov_aleksey_ml@mail.ruLomonosov Moscow State UniversityМосковский государственный университет имени М.В. ЛомоносоваPlekhanov Russian University of Economics,РЭУ им. Г.В. ПлехановаMGIMO UniversityМосковский государственный институт международных отношений (университет) Министерства иностранных дел Российской Федерации202506521Copyright © 2024 Svetlana V. Badina, Alexey A. PankratovCopyright © 2024 Светлана Вадимовна Бадина, Алексей Алексеевич Панкратов2024Svetlana V. Badina, Alexey A. PankratovСветлана Вадимовна Бадина, Алексей Алексеевич ПанкратовCC BY 4.0https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/710https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/710/313

The Pechoro-Kara region occupies a special place in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation as the centre of hydrocarbon exploration, which is the main Russian export. At the same time, this is the area with the highest climate risks on the Arctic coast of Russia. The study aims to estimate the value of buildings and structures planned for construction as part of large investment projects in the coastal areas of the Pechora and Kara Seas by the mid-21st century. Regulatory documents, data from official websites and investment portals of various companies and public authorities were examined to create a database of 36 investment projects in the mining and manufacturing industries, transport scheduled to be commissioned in 2017–2050. The authors’ method analyses the time series of indicators of investment in fixed capital and new fixed assets, as well as the structure of fixed assets in the examined industries. Calculations reveal that after the construction phase of each of the projects under consideration, new fixed assets amounting to 8.2 trillion roubles are expected. These include buildings and structures of the mining industry (approximately 6.2 trillion roubles), transport (0.8 trillion roubles), manufacturing industry (0.1 trillion roubles). As an example, the obtained results were compared with the forecast of thermal abrasion and ice-gouging hazards on the coasts of the Pechora and Kara seas. The estimated value of fixed assets that will be located in areas of maximum risk is about 4 trillion roubles (in 2023 prices). This finding confirms the urgent need for early implementation of adaptation protective measures during the construction and operation of infrastructure in order to minimise potential damage.

Печорско-Карский регион занимает особое положение в Арктической зоне Российской Федерации (АЗРФ), являясь основным центром добычи углеводородного сырья — главного элемента российского экспорта. В то же время именно для этой территории характерен один из самых высоких уровней климатических рисков на Арктическом побережье России. Целью данного исследования является оценка стоимости недвижимой части основных фондов (зданий и сооружений), запланированных к строительству в рамках реализации крупных инвестиционных проектов в прибрежных районах Печорского и Карского морей к середине XXI в. С использованием нормативно-правовых документов, официальных сайтов и инвестиционных порталов компаний и органов государственной власти разного уровня была сформирована база данных из 36 инвестиционных проектов в сфере добывающей и обрабатывающей промышленности, транспорта с плановыми сроками ввода в эксплуатацию с 2017 г. по 2050 г. В основу авторской методики был положен анализ динамических рядов показателей инвестиций в основной капитал и ввода в действие основных фондов, а также видовой структуры основных фондов в указанных отраслях в пределах рассматриваемых регионов. Расчеты показали, что после завершения стадии строительства каждого из рассматриваемых проектов на территории появится новых основных фондов общей стоимостью порядка 8,2 трлн руб., из них зданий и сооружений добывающей промышленности — порядка 6,2 трлн руб., транспорта — 0,8 трлн руб., обрабатывающей промышленности — 0,1 трлн руб. В качестве примера приведено сопоставление полученных результатов с прогнозом термоабразионной и ледово-экзарационной опасности на берегах Печорского и Карского морей. Оценочная стоимость основных фондов, которые будут локализованы в ареалах максимального риска, составила порядка 4 трлн руб. в ценах 2023 г. Это подтверждает острую необходимость проведения заблаговременных адаптационных защитных мероприятий при строительстве и эксплуатации инфраструктуры с целью минимизации вероятного ущерба.

Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, coastal natural and economic systems, fixed assets, climate change, riskАрктическая зона Российской Федерации, береговые природно-хозяйственные системы, основные фонды, климатические изменения, риск

The article has been prepared with the support of the Russian Science Foundation, the project No. 22-17-00097 “Hazardous exogenous processes and technogenesis on the coasts and shelf of the Pechora and Kara seas”.

Исследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке РНФ в рамках научного проекта № 22-17-00097 «Опасные экзогенные процессы и техногенез на берегах и шельфе Печорского и Карского морей».

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