2072-64142411-140610.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-20WHICH HYPOTHESIS IS VALID FOR OECD COUNTRIES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH? A PANEL DATA ANALYSISВЗАИМОСВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ ЭНЕРГОПОТРЕБЛЕНИЕМ И ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМ РОСТОМ В СТРАНАХ ОЭСР: АНАЛИЗ ПАНЕЛЬНЫХ ДАННЫХhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1861-3118Sugözü İbrahim Halil Сугёзю Ибрагим Халил ihsugozu@sirnak.edu.trhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7056-9265Yaşar Sema ЯшарСема semayasar@sirnak.edu.trKyrgyz-Turkish Manas UniversityКыргызско-Турецкий университет «Манас»Şırnak UniversityШирнакский университет192560574Copyright © 2023 İbrahim Halil Sugözü, Sema YaşarCopyright © 2023 Ибрагим Халил Сугёзю, Сема Яшар2023İbrahim Halil Sugözü, Sema YaşarИбрагим Халил Сугёзю, Сема ЯшарCC BY 4.0https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/622https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/622/215

In the study, panel data analysis was conducted on 32 OECD countries covering the period 1990-2018. To analyse the effect of energy consumption on economic growth, first, a cross-section dependence test of the variables was carried out, then CADF Test, which is the most suitable unit root test based on the obtained results results, was applied. According to the findings of the Hausman, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity tests, it has been decided to use the Driscoll-Kraay test for the model’s forecast. The forecast results demonstrate that energy consumption positively affects economic growth. Westerlund ECM Panel Cointegration Test was conducted to determine the long-term relationship, and it concluded that the variables acted together in the long term. Emirmahmutoglu & Kose and Dumitrescu & Hurlin tests were used to determine the direction of the relationship between energy consumption and growth. Through the results of both tests, a maximum number of countries emerged respectively in the null hypothesis with no causality relationship and then in the growth hypothesis explaining the causality relationship from energy to growth. Along with the panel fisher and panel Z_NT test results of both causality tests, a causality relationship has been detected from energy to growth.

В данном исследовании проведен анализ панельных данных по 32 странам Организации экономического сотрудничества и развития (ОЭСР) за 1990-2018 гг. Для оценки влияния энергопотребления на экономический рост сначала была оценена кросс-зависимость переменных, затем применен расширенный тест Дики — Фуллера (CADF) — наиболее подходящий тест на единичный корень. По результатам теста Хаусмана, а также тестов на автокорреляцию и гетероскедастичность было принято решение использовать тест Дрисколла — Крэя для прогноза модели. Результаты прогноза показывают, что энергопотребление положительно влияет на экономический рост. Тест Вестерлунда на коинтеграцию продемонстрировал взаимосвязь между исследуемыми переменными в долгосрочной перспективе. Направление зависимости между энергопотреблением и экономическим ростом было определено при помощи тестов Эмирмахмутоглу — Косе и Думитреску — Хурлина. Согласно полученным данным, для большинства стран подтвердилась нулевая гипотеза (отсутствие причинно-следственной связи); при этом, для отдельных государств верной является гипотеза роста (энергопотребление влияет на экономический рост).

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