2072-64142411-140610.17059/ekon.reg.2023-2-2THE INFLUENCE OF THE REGIONAL SECTORAL STRUCTURE ON THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF A REGIONВЛИЯНИЕ ОТРАСЛЕВОЙ СТРУКТУРЫ НА СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ РЕГИОНАhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5489-3989Sorokozherdyev Kirill G.СорокожердьевКирилл Григорьевич sorokozh_kg@spbstu.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8177-1082Efimov Evgeniy A. Ефимов Евгений Александрович Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic UniversityСанкт-Петербургский политехнический университет Петра Великого192314328Copyright © 2023 Kirill G. Sorokozherdyev, Evgeniy A. EfimovCopyright © 2023 Кирилл Григорьевич Сорокожердьев, Евгений Александрович Ефимов2023Kirill G. Sorokozherdyev, Evgeniy A. EfimovКирилл Григорьевич Сорокожердьев, Евгений Александрович ЕфимовCC BY 4.0https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/602https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/602/195

The socio-economic development of regions and countries is an important research issue. Thus, it is necessary to identify those areas that can serve as sources of economic growth and the basis for the well-being of the population. This study aims to determine the most important sectors of the economy of a region that can contribute to its socio-economic development. For this research, the Arkhangelsk region was taken as one of the typical Russian regions that have neither significant reserves of hydrocarbons nor any large industrial complexes. In this regard, the question of possible origins of economic growth seems especially relevant. To this end, an autoregressive distributed lag model (ADL-model) was developed, which is based on quarterly data on the socio-economic development of the Arkhangelsk region for the period 2004–2019. The obtained three equations reflect the dynamics of regional socio-economic development. The study showed that the greatest influence on the socio-economic development of the region is exerted by such industries as mining, construction, and manufacturing sectors. The study can become the basis for forecasting and modelling the socio-economic development of the Arkhangelsk region in the short and medium-term. It also can be helpful for analysing the effectiveness of measures aimed at stimulating those or other industries of the region. The model can be used in developing a regional development strategy.

Поиск источников экономического роста и повышения благосостояния населения является предметом многочисленных исследований социально-экономического развития регионов. Цель данного исследования — определить важнейшие отрасли экономики региона, которые могут способствовать его социально-экономическому развитию. Архангельская область была выбрана в качестве объекта анализа как типичный регион России, в котором нет значительных запасов углеводородов, крупных промышленных комплексов, а значит, поиск возможных источников экономического роста особенно актуален. Авторами разработана модель авторегрессии и распределенного лага (ADL-модель) для анализа квартальных данных о социально-экономическом развитии Архангельской области за период 2004–2019 гг. Полученные три уравнения отражают динамику регионального социально-экономического развития. Исследование показало, что горнодобывающая, строительная и обрабатывающая отрасли оказывают наибольшее влияние на социально-экономическое развитие региона. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы для прогнозирования и моделирования социально-экономического развития Архангельской области в краткосрочной и среднесрочной перспективе, а также для изучения эффективности мер, направленных на стимулирование различных региональных отраслей. Представленная модель в дальнейшем может быть применена при разработке стратегии регионального развития.

regional economic development, regional sectoral structure, regional GDP structure, mining sector, sector of wholesale and retail trade, sector of manufacturing, sector of construction, agricultural sector, ADL model, Arkhangelsk regionрегиональное экономическое развитие, региональная отраслевая структура, региональная структура ВВП, горнодобывающая отрасль, оптово-розничная торговля, обрабатывающая промышленность, строительная отрасль, сельское хозяйство, ADL-модель, Архангельская область

The article has been prepared with the support of the Russian Academic Excellence Project 5-100 proposed by Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University.

Статья подготовлена при поддержке Проекта 5-100, реализуемого в Санкт-Петербургском государственном политехническом университете.

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