2072-64142411-1406

10.17059/ekon.reg.2026-2-14

Geoeconomic Sustainability of the Agro-Industrial Complex in Russia under External Economic Restrictions: Conceptual Framework and Assessment Methodology

Геоэкономическая устойчивость АПК: концепция и методика оценки в условиях внешнеэкономических ограничений

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2034-951X

Skvortsov

Egor A.

Скворцов

Егор Артемович

9089267986@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7606-4022

Gusev

Aleksey S.

Гусев

Алексей Сергеевич

a_anser@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2523-7595

Kurdyumov

Aleksandr V.

Курдюмов

Александр Васильевич

kurdyumov@usue.ru

USUEУрГЭУ

26062026

2224314461110202531032026

2026

Egor A. Skvortsov, Aleksey S. Gusev, Aleksandr V. Kurdyumov

Егор Артемович Скворцов, Алексей Сергеевич Гусев, Александр Васильевич Курдюмов

CC BY 4.0

https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/1407

https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/1407/1518

Russia’s agricultural sector faces growing challenges from external economic restrictions, sanctions, and disrupted supply chains. The traditional sustainable development framework, encompassing environmental, economic, and social components, does not account for risks stemming from geoeconomic instability, creating a gap in theory and methodology. This study develops a concept of geoeconomic sustainability in agriculture and proposes an assessment methodology that enables a quantitative evaluation of the sector’s capacity to adapt to external constraints and maintain export potential. The research employs a systems approach, along with comparative and dynamic analysis. The empirical base includes data from international organizations (ITC, WTO) and the Federal Centre for Agricultural Export Development of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture for 2014–2024. Subindices are calculated using formalized models with weighting coefficients reflecting sectoral characteristics. The results reveal a paradoxical trend: despite a decline in the number of importing countries (from 126 in 2018 to 85 in 2024), export value increased (from 562.1 to 3,383.6 million roubles). The geoeconomic sustainability index decreased from 54.0 to 38.4 points, indicating rising systemic risks, primarily due to reduced export diversification. This reflects a pattern of successful but risky adaptation, characterized by concentration on key markets (China, Turkey, Egypt) and reduced logistics diversification. The proposed methodology can support policymakers and businesses in managing external economic risks, diversifying exports, and developing adaptive logistics systems. Limitations include reduced statistical detail after 2022. Future research should focus on sectoral and regional models and integration into strategic planning frameworks.

Аграрный сектор экономики сталкивается с беспрецедентными вызовами в виде внешнеэкономических ограничений, санкций и целенаправленного разрыва логистических цепочек. Существующая парадигма устойчивого развития, опирающаяся на экологический, экономический и социальный компоненты, не учитывает риски, порождаемые геоэкономической нестабильностью, что создает существенный пробел в теоретическом и методическом аппарате. Целью исследования является разработка концепции и методики оценки геоэкономической устойчивости АПК, позволяющей количественно оценить способность аграрного сектора экономики адаптироваться к внешнеэкономическим ограничениям и реализовать экспортный потенциал. Методология исследования базируется на системном подходе и методах сравнительного и динамического анализа. Эмпирическую базу составили данные международных организаций (ITC, WTO) и Федерального центра развития экспорта продукции АПК Минсельхоза России за период с 2014 по 2024 г. Расчет субиндексов проводился по формализованным формулам с использованием весовых коэффициентов, отражающих отраслевую специфику. Результаты выявили парадоксальную динамику: при сокращении количества стран-импортеров с 126 до 85 единиц стоимостной объем экспорта вырос с 562,1 до 3383,6 млн р. Расчет индекса IGS показал его снижение с 54,0 до 38,4 пункта, что свидетельствует о нарастании системных рисков, преимущественно из-за резкого снижения диверсификации экспорта. Результаты демонстрируют успешную, но рискованную адаптацию, характеризующуюся концентрацией на стратегически важных рынках (Китай, Турция, Египет) и свертыванием логистических маршрутов. Полученные результаты и разработанная методика могут быть применены органами государственной власти и субъектами хозяйствования для разработки стратегий управления внешнеэкономическими рисками, диверсификации экспортных потоков и формирования адаптивной логистической инфраструктуры. Основное ограничение исследования связано с недостаточной детализацией статистических данных после 2022 г. Перспективным направлением будущих исследований является разработка отраслевых и региональных моделей геоэкономической устойчивости, а также интеграция предложенной методики в систему отраслевого и регионального планирования.

agriculturegeoeconomic sustainabilityforeign economic restrictionsexportsustainable developmentsanctionsimport dependenceagro-industrial complex

агропромышленный комплекссельское хозяйствогеоэкономическая устойчивостьвнешнеэкономические ограниченияэкспортустойчивое развитиесанкцииимпортозависимость

This study was supported by grant No. 24-28-01678 from the Russian Science Foundation, https://rscf.ru/project/24-28-01678/

Исследование выполнено за счет гранта Российского научного фонда No 24-28-01678, https://rscf.ru/project/24-28-01678/

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